For the first time in 24 years, we have an AFC East preview that doesn’t involve Bill Belichick. The New England Patriots appear to be the only team that doesn’t have a chance to win this very competitive division in 2024. Last season, the Bills won the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season and then bowed out in the Divisional Round to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins also finished 11-6 and lost in the Wild Card round to the Chiefs.
The New York Jets were supposed to compete with the Bills and Dolphins but lost Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, but still managed to finish 7-10. The Patriots finished last at a miserable 4-13 and the team finally parted ways with Belichick. Here is a look at the 2024 AFC East.
AFC East Standings [2023]
| AFC | EAST | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Bills | 11 | 6 | 0 |
 | Dolphins | 11 | 6 | 0 |
 | Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 |
 | Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 |
BUFFALO BILLS (+165)
We’ll start with the Bills, who are the favorites to win this division again, but it’s a very slim on the odds board. Because of cap space-related issues, the Bills’ roster has undergone a massive overhaul. They lost key players on both sides of the ball, and tried to fill the spots the best they could in the offseason. On offense, the Bills traded away Stefon Diggs, let Gabe Davis walk in free agency and released center Mitch Morse. On defense, the secondary took a big hit with Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White gone.
The Bills still have Josh Allen and he has the second-best odds to win league MVP at +800. The additions of free agent wide receiver Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman could be impactful, but the loss of Diggs could really hurt. The defense is the concern for Buffalo heading into 2024. The team didn’t add enough in the offseason to negate what they lost. Buffalo also has the toughest strength of schedule in the division.
Odds to Win AFC East (as of 6/26/24):
Buffalo Bills +165
New York Jets +170
Miami Dolphins +215
New England Patriots +2500
NEW YORK JETS (+170)
It was not only a bummer for Jets’ fans, but for the entire NFL when Rodgers blew his Achilles on the first offensive possession of 2023. The Jets spent the offseason revamping their offensive line by adding four new players: Morgan Moses, Tyron Smith, John Simpson and Olu Fashanu. With the return of guard Alijah Vera-Tucker from injury and Joe Tippman, this could be a terrific offensive line.
The Jets also signed wide receiver Mike Williams to complement Garrett Wilson. Breece Hall is proving to be a great running back, so Rodgers has the talent to work around. The Jets allowed the third-fewest yards last season despite ranking 12th in points allowed. They traded for pass rusher Haason Reddick, who has had four straight double-digit sack seasons. New York will get tested early with a Week 1 Monday Night matchup at San Francisco.
Week 1 NFL Lines, Free Picks and Futures
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+215)
Like the Bills, the Dolphins’ roster underwent a massive overhaul including getting a new defensive coordinator in Anthony Weaver to replace Vic Fangio. Weaver will have a revamped defense to work with with Christian Wilkins, Andrew Van Ginkel, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker and Brandon Jones all gone. Star pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips are recovering from late-season injuries.
The offense added receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and running back Jaylen Wright in the draft. In their second season under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins improved from 11th to second in scoring and sixth to first in total yards. Miami begins the season with three of four at home and end the year with three of four on the road.
Season Win Totals (as of 6/26/24):
Buffalo Bills 10.5 u140
New York Jets 9.5 o145
Miami Dolphins 9.5 o125
New England Patriots 4.5 o165
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+2500)
With the Bills, Dolphins and Jets battling for the division crown, the Patriots will certainly be looking up from the basement. Jerod Mayo takes over for Belichick and it’s rebuilding time in Foxborough. The offense was terrible last season, ranking 31st in points and 30th in yards. Quarterback Mac Jones was traded away and the new man under center will either be veteran Jacoby Brissett or third overall pick in the 2024 Draft, Drake Maye. The Patriots also traded for K.J. Osborn and drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker to bolster the wide receiver position.
The defense will be the best part of this team, as they were last season. Most of the key players are back from a unit that ranked ranked seventh in yards allowed with a strong front seven. It will take some getting used to watching this team without Belichick and the Pats have only one prime time game this season – Thursday night at the Jets in Week 3.
Jay’s Season Win Total Best Bet: The Bills went from 13 wins in 2022 to 11 wins last season and I think they drop again. They lost key players on both sides of the ball and the division is not going to be easy with the improved Dolphins and Jets. Allen is great but losing Diggs is huge. I can’t see this team winning more than 10 games.
Buffalo Bills UNDER 10.5 -140
Jay’s Pick to Win Division: I chose the Bills over the Jets in last year’s preview, but I’m taking New York this time around. Obviously, everything hinges on a healthy Rodgers. The Jets have a very good team around him both on offense and defense. Rodgers is hungry, and so are the Jets.
Jets +170
To see more odds and props for the AFC East, click here.
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