AFC East Preview, Betting Odds and Free Picks [2023]

This year’s AFC East race could be the most intriguing in all of the NFL thanks to one man – Aaron Rodgers. The former league and Super Bowl MVP in the NFC, takes his 39-year old arm to the Big Apple in hopes of getting the New York Jets back to the promised land. It won’t be easy however, as the division is hoping to get three playoff teams this year.

AFC East Standings [2022]


The Buffalo Bills are also trying to get over the hump and have won at least 10 games in each of the past four seasons. However, the AFC Championship game is as far as Josh Allen has gotten them. The team is loaded top-to-bottom and now the defense will be run by head coach Sean McDermott. The Bills are the favorites, but the gap is closing.

Odds to Win AFC East (as of 6/26/23):
Buffalo Bills +125
New York Jets +250
Miami Dolphins +285
New England Patriots +750

The Miami Dolphins are third on the AFC East odds board right behind the Jets. They have won at least nine games in three straight seasons and the roster keeps improving. Elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey joins the defense that will now be run by Vic Fangio. The offense has weapons, but can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy for a full season. If so, this Miami team is dangerous.

Week 1 NFL Lines

Everything in New York obviously hinges on Aaron Rodgers’ shoulders. The Jets already have a very solid defense that includes Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner. Quinnen Williams was dominant with 12 sacks, while others like C.J. Mosley and D.J. Reed contributed their fair share to a defense that ranked fourth in points allowed. Getting off to a good start might be tough. The Jets open with Buffalo, @Dallas, New England, Kansas City, @Denver and Philadelphia before their bye.

Season Win Totals (as of 6/26/23):
Buffalo Bills 10.5 o140
Miami Dolphins 9.5 o125
New England Patriots 7.5 o125
New York Jets 9.5 o130

It’s been a couple of decades since the Patriots have been unanimously picked to finish last in the division. It’s not that they’re a bad team, it’s the three above them that have improved drastically over the last couple of seasons. Still, it’s not always wise to bet against Bill Belichick. The defense is fine, but the offense is lacking leadership and weapons. Mac Jones has the tools and now has Bill O’Brien to help guide him and this offense.

Jay’s Season Win Total Best Bet: I like this Miami team, but I just don’t trust Tua under center even when healthy. This team started 8-3 last year and then lost six of their final seven games. Getting to 10 wins in this division is a tall order and I think this team will underachieve.
Dolphins UNDER 9.5 +105

Jay’s Pick to Win Division: Buffalo is still the best team overall and I’ll pick them again to win this tough division. The schedule sets up for them to get a hot start until it heats up in December. The opening game against the Jets is key, but even if they lose that one, I’ll still feel good about my pick.
Bills +125

To see more odds and props for the AFC East, click here.

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AFC North Preview
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AFC West Preview
NFC East Preview
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NFC West Preview