Week 8 – NFL Match Up Analysis

October 24th 2007
Bet On Football

Washington Redskins (3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) at New EnglandPatriots (7-0 SU & ATS)

The Patriots thumped Miami last week for theirseventh straight victory, both straight up and against the spread. Thewin put the Pats in some lofty company, in more ways than one; they becamejust the ninth team in the past decade to cover the spread for seven straightgames. If they get the money this Sunday against Washington, they’llbecome the third team in the past 10 seasons to bring home the bacon ineight consecutive tilts, joining the Pittsburgh Steelers and San DiegoChargers, who did it in 2004. But is 17 points too large a spread againsta much-improved Redskins team? Don’t pay too much attention to thefact Washington is 5-0 SU in its past five games against New England;the teams have only met twice in the past 11 years, the last one a 20-17Redskins win at home more than four years ago. Six of the Patriots pastseven games have gone over.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-4 SU & ATS) at MinnesotaVikings (2-4 SU, 2-2-2 ATS)

Other than their loss to Chicago last week, the Eagleshave a pretty impressive record against NFC North opponents, going 25-12ATS in their past 37. The Eagles are also 14-9 ATS on the road as favoritesagainst conference opponents and have cashed at a 21-13-1 clip when playingunder domes. Minnesota, on the other hand, has cashed 20 of 29 as homeunderdogs. Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its past seven games against Minnesota,and 8-1 ATS in its past nine against Minnesota. The Vikings are 2-5 SUin their past seven games at home, and 1-2-2 ATS in their past five overall.The under is 10-3 when Philadelphia is a non-division road favorite.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU & ATS) at CincinnatiBengals (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)

The Steelers and Bengals are at opposite ends of the AFCNorth – Steelers in first, Bengals last – but when these twoteams go head-to-head, all that matters is where they’re playing.The road team has won the past six games between the teams, and the hometeam has failed to cover the spread in nine of the past 10. Ben Roethlisbergerand the Steelers have won 13 of their past 16 at Cincinnati (12-4 ATS).The Steelers are also 18-6-2 ATS versus division opponents on the road.The Bengals are 1-7 ATS at home in October coming off a SU win, whichthey managed last Sunday when they beat the New York Jets 38-31. Pittsburghhas gone under in 13 of 17 on the road after losing SU as favorites, whichit did last week in a 31-28 loss to the Denver Broncos.

Buffalo Bills (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) at New York Jets(1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)

Buffalo has covered the spread in three straight and in 11 of its past15, though it has come up short in its last three on the road. The Billsare 4-15 ATS on the road after covering three of four games. They havecovered six of eight division road games. In the past 15 series matchupsbetween these teams at The Meadowlands, the Jets have covered 10. TheJets have also covered five of seven clashes overall. The Jets are 4-13-1ATS after allowing 28 points or more. Four of the past five series encountershave gone over.

Houston Texans (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) at San DiegoChargers (3-3 SU & ATS)

After a very shaky start, the Chargers had two lopsidedwins and were starting to look like the team many had picked to make itto the Super Bowl. Then the bye week came along and broke up their momentum.But they have a good chance to continue their roll this weekend, as theyare huge home favorites against Houston, which has failed to cover fourstraight. The total has been going over pretty consistently for the Texans– in five of their past five on the road, and in five of the pastsix overall. Houston is 2-4 ATS in its past six, and 1-4 SU in its pastfive games. San Diego is 10-2 SU in its past 12 games at home, but is3-6 ATS in its past nine.

New Orleans Saints (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) at San Francisco49ers (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)

The Saints have been money in the bank against the 49ers,going 6-2 SU in their past eight meetings and 8-2 ATS in the past 10.San Francisco has dropped four straight. The Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons22-16 as a 7½-point underdog, and are 16-5 ATS when coming offa home win and facing a division rival. All five of the past five meetingsin San Francisco have gone over. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its past 5games in San Francisco, but San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its past six againstNew Orleans.

Green Bay Packers (4-2 SU & ATS) at DenverBroncos (1-5 SU & ATS)

This Monday Night Football matchup might prove a toughpick, as both teams have very inconsistent recently. Green Bay is comingoff a bye and is 5-1 SU in its past six on the road. The Broncos pickedup a huge win last Sunday, edging Pittsburgh 31-28 as a 4½-pointunderdog. Denver is 17-7 SU in its past 24 games at home. The total hasgone over in four of Green Bay’s past five games, and the total has goneover in eight of Denver’s past nine games at home.