Week 5- NFL Match Up Analysis

October 4th 2007
Bet On Football

SEAHAWKS SEAHAWKS (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) at PITTSBURGHSTEELERS (3-1 SU and ATS)

Seattle has looked good this season, but this matchup putsthem in a situation in which they haven’t had muchsuccess in recent seasons. Seattle has performed poorlyagainst AFC opponents on the road, going 3-9 ATS in itspast 12 games. The Seahawks are a pitiful 2-14 ATS on theroad in October when facing a team with a winning record.Pittsburgh and Seattle are 7th and 8th, respectively, inoffense in the NFL. Seattle has ended up over the totalin 10 of 12 games when it is a non-conference underdog.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at NEW ENGLANDPATRIOTS (4-0 SU and ATS)

New England is near-perfect 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in its past10 games. However, Cleveland is 11-5-1 as road underdogsof seven points or more and it has made money at a 16-6-1rate after scoring 23 points or more. New England is animpressive 35-13-2 as home favorites against a non-divisionopponent. The total has gone over in four of Cleveland’spast five games. Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its past six gameson the road. On the negative side, though, Cleveland is2-6 SU in its past eight games, and 1-4 SU in its past fiveagainst the Patriots. The total has gone over in five ofNew England’s past five games at home.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-2 SU, 3-0-1ATS) at ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-4 SU and ATS)

Five weeks into the season might not be long enough to gaugewhich is the best team in the NFL, but it’s enoughto say who may be the worst, and that’s the Rams.The Cards have covered the spread in 11 of their past 17against St. Louis and the series visitor has come away withthe dough in nine of the past 12 encounters. However, theseries favorite has failed in the last seven showdowns.The Cardinals are 2-7 as favorites after winning SU as underdogs.The Rams are 4-16-1 as division home underdogs. The Cardinalsare 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games overall and theirpast six on the road. The total has gone over in four ofSt. Louis’s past five home games against Arizona.

NEW YORK JETS (1-3 SU, 1-2-1ATS) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-2 SU and ATS)

The New York Jets are a woeful 3-10SU and 4-9 ATS on the road when playing outside their division.The Jets have also lost at a 18-10-2 rate as underdogs.The New York Giants are 19-7 ATS following a double-digitwin over a division foe. They have made bettors money in20 of 30 at the Meadowlands after allowing 10 points orless. The Giants have gone over in 13 of 20 versus non-conferenceopponents. However, they have gone under the total at arate of 16-8-3 when at home after giving up 10 points orless. The total has gone under in 10 of the Giants’past 13 games at home.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-1 SU and ATS) at INDIANAPOLISCOLTS (4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS)

Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in 16 of its past19 on the road against a non-division opponent. The Bucshave come up short in 14 of 17 on the road in October whencoming off a SU win as well. Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS asnon-conference favorites. The Colts are 19-11-2 ATS afterscoring 28 points or more. Tampa Bay has fell under in 20of 30 on the road when playing outside its division andin 33 of 49 after allowing 10 points or less. The totalhas gone under in five of Tampa Bay’s past six games, andgone under in four of Tampa Bay’s past five road games.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (1-3 SU and ATS)at DENVER BRONCOS (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS)

What’s happening with San Diego?It sounds strange, but this could prove to be a real testfor the underperforming Chargers. Denver has cashed at a12-6-2 clip as division favorites at home and covered nineof 12 with division revenge. The Broncos are 10-5-2 ATSversus San Diego at home. The SU winner has cashed at an18-1-3 rate in the AFC-West rivalry. The Chargers have failedto ‘cover’ seven of their last 10. They have posted a 14-5-2mark ATS after losing SU as favorites. Seven of the past10 series showdowns in Colorado have finished under. However,Denver has topped the ‘total’ at a 21-5-1 pace as home favoritesof 3 1/2-points or less.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) at SAN FRANCISCO49ERS (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS)

Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its past 15 games, but just 2-4SU in its past 6 against San Francisco. San Francisco is8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home. Baltimore has mademoney in 13 of 18 as favorites against NFC teams, and inseven of eight on the road. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS awayfrom home after scoring 14 points or less and 13-4-1 ATSafter a SU loss as favorites. However, they have lost andfailed in 11 of their last 17 road games. San Franciscois 5-1 as non-conference underdogs of less than six points.The 49ers have made money in eight of 10 before a bye. Thetotal has gone over in five of Baltimore’s past seven gameson the road, and has gone over in four of Baltimore’s pastsix games against San Francisco.

CHICAGO BEARS (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) at GREEN BAY PACKERS(4-0 SU and ATS)

This great rivalry adds another chapter to its storied history.Green Bay will be in revenge mode, as they will be lookingto snap a three-game SU and ATS home losing skid againstthe Bears. The favorite has cashed at an 8-4-1 clip overthe past 13 series showdowns. The Packers are 13-6 as homefavorites of 3½-points or less. However, they havefailed in eight of 11 as division home chalk and at a 5-10-1clip as home favorites overall. The Bears are 6-0 ATS inOctober against a divisional opponent following back-to-backSU losses. They have also covered the spread in 13 of 15road games when facing a team with a winning record. Theover has made money in 23 of the past 34 series matchups.Green Bay has gone over the number in seven of eight ashome favorites of 3½ points or less.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-2 SU and ATS)at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-3 SU and ATS)

In this NFC-South rivalry, the visitingteam has cashed in 12 of the past 13 encounters. Carolinais 17-7-2 ATS on the road and it has made bettors’money at a rate of 7-0-1 clip as divisional underdogs. Thestruggling Saints, who are coming off a bye week, are 1-9as division home favorites and 9-19-1 at home overall. ThePanthers have made money at a 20-12-1 rate on the road whenfacing teams with a losing record and they are 20-10-1 ATScoming off a double-digit loss. Carolina is 5-0 ATS and5-0 SU in its past five games when playing on the road againstNew Orleans. The total has gone under in four of New Orleans’spast six games at home, but the total has gone over in fourof New Orleans’s past six games at home against Carolina.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-1 SU, 1-2ATS) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Jacksonville is an impressive 21-11-1 ATS against non-divisionalopponents on the road. But conversely, the Jaguars havedropped the ball at a 15-5-1 clip as road favorites andin six of seven as non-division road favorites in October.Kansas City is 35-10-2 as home underdogs and 19-6 ATS atArrowhead Stadium following a SU and ATS win. The Chiefshave failed to bring home the bacon in five off six aftera SU win as underdogs. Jacksonville has gone over the totalin six of seven games when facing a non-division opponentcoming off a bye. Kansas City has finished over at a 21-12-1rate when picked as the underdog.

ATLANTA FALCONS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) at TENNESSEE TITANS(2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Tennessee, which is coming off a bye, has made money in13 of its past 15 games going back to 2006, including fiveof six at home. The Titans are 10-3 as non-conference homefavorites and they have covered the spread 22 of 31 overallagainst NFC opponents. But that’s where the positivesend. Tennessee is 5-21 as home favorites of more than fivebut less than 10 points. Atlanta has come up short in 10of its past 13 as road under dogs of seven points or more.Tennessee has gone over at a 19-8-1 rate at home and hasbeen on the high side in 22 of 28 at Alltel Stadium againstnon-division rivals (5-0 last year).