Week 3- NFL Match Up Analysis

September 20th 2007

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)at HOUSTON TEXANS (2-0 SU & ATS)

Houston has won four straight for the first timein franchise history. That may be cause for celebration, albeita short-lived one, as the Texans now face Peyton Manning and theIndianapolis Colts. The Texans are a lousy 6-17 ATS after a SUwin and 5-10 ATS after two straight spread successes. They havecashed in eight of 12 games when hosting a divisional opponent.Indianapolis is 17-6-1 ATS versus AFC South rivals on the roadand 10-3 as road favorites in September. Six of the past eighthead-to-head games have gone over the posted game total. Houstonhas gone over in nine of 12 following a SU/ATS win, and in nineof 10 at home when the number was between 42½ and 49

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (1-1 SU & ATS)at GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-0 SU&ATS)

San Diego is coming off a 38-14 loss to the New England Patriots,a game dominated by the Patriots. But the Chargers have done verywell against NFC opposition on the road, cashing at a rate of22-7. Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS versus AFC foes. The Packers, whobeat the New York Giants 35-13 last week in QB Brett Favre’srecord-setting 149th career win, have covered seven of 10 as homedogs in September and cashed four straight versus the Chargers,though the teams haven’t met since 2003. San Diego has gone overin 19 of 27 chances as non-conference favorites. Green Bay hasended up under at a rate of 15-5-1 after a SU win as underdogs.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-1 SU, 1-0-1) at KANSASCITY CHIEFS (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)

The Vikings, 20-17 overtime losers to the DetroitLions last week, have failed to cash in nine of 10 games Againstthe Spread versus AFC West division opponents. Minnesota has alsofailed in 17 of 25 as a non-division road underdog. Kansas City,who were doubled 20-10 by the Chicago Bears last Sunday, is 13-4ATS in its third game of the season and it has cashed 19 of 25home openers. The Chiefs are 12-4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium (13-3SU). Kansas City has gone over in 21 of 29 as non-conference favoritesand in seven of nine at home after a double-digit defeat.

DETROIT LIONS (2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) at PHILADELPHIAEAGLES (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Is Detroit the surprise team of 2007? It’sstill early, but the Lions offense is ranked 5th in the NFL, averaging28 points and 403.5 yards per game. They’ll be looking towin three straight for the first time since 2000. The Lions havedropped eight of 10 ATS on the road after a SU win. Philadelphiahas cashed four straight versus Detroit, including the last threeat home.

BUFFALO BILLS (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) at NEWENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-0 SU & ATS)

Perhaps surprisingly, Buffalo is 6-1 ATS on theroad against division foes and has cashed six of seven away fromhome coming off a SU & ATS loss in September. New Englandis 18-8-1 as division favorites. The Pats are 7-2-1 ATS at homeversus the Bills. The under has taken the money in 15 of the past18 series matchups, including the past eight in Boston. New Englandhas gone below the total in 20 of 30 as favorites of seven ormore. Buffalo has ended up under in 12 of 15 as division underdogs on the road.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) atNEW YORK JETS (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)

To put it mildly, the New York Jets have the MiamiDolphins number, at least on their home turf. New York has dumpedMiami on a routine basis in recent years, going 12-3-1 SU againstthe Dolphins at the Meadowlands. The SU winner in this AFC-Eastrivalry is 17-2-1 ATS. The Dolphins are a woeful 2-11 as underdogson the road versus divisional opponents. New York is 10-1 ATSat home coming off a double-digit SU loss. However, the Jets are1-7 as favorites off a SU loss to a non-division opponent in September.Miami has slipped below the total in 10 of 14 away from home afterallowing 28 points or more, and it has fallen under in 17 of 25in September. The Jets have been under at a 14-6-1 rate afterscoring 14 points or less.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS)at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-0 SU & ATS)

San Francisco is about to get a reality checkthis weekend, as they face the red-hot Steelers in Pittsburgh.The 49ers are usually pretty good on back-to-back road games,going 36-16 ATS when playing their second straight game away fromhome. However, they are just 8-18-1 ATS in the Eastern time zoneand 4-8 ATS after winning SU as underdogs. The Steelers are 13-4as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points. On the other hand,they are just 12-21-1 as non-conference favorites. San Franciscohas ended up under in 12 of 16 after a SU win as underdogs. Pittsburghhas gone over the total in 14 of 16 at Heinz Field.

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