Week 12 – NFL Match Up Analysis

November 21 2007
NFL Betting
Bet On Football

Seattle Seahawks (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at St. Louis Rams (2-8 SU & ATS)

With just two wins, St. Louis is headed toward its third-straight season without a postseason appearance. Those two wins have come in the past two games, but both were on the road, and now the Rams return to the Edward Jones Dome, where they have lost four straight this season, to host the division-rival Seahawks, who lead the sad-sack NFC West. The Rams will be looking for revenge after getting blown out in Seattle 33-7 earlier this season. The Seahawks have had their own struggles this season, especially on the road, where they’ve lost and failed to cover the spread in three of four tries this season. They have come up short in 17 of 25 as road favorites and in 13 of 17 as road favorites of 3½ points or less. St. Louis, meanwhile, has cashed nine of 10 at home after giving up 10 points or less.

New York Jets (2-8 SU, 2-6-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS)

Despite having the second-best record in the NFL (along with Green Bay), Dallas has not been kind to bettors when they’re a double-digit favorite (9-18-2 ATS). The New York Jets are 11-21-1 as underdogs, but they have covered the spread in 12 of 18 tilts after winning their previous game by three points or less, which they did last Sunday, pulling off one of the bigger upsets of the season with a 19-16 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 9.5-point underdog. The Cowboys beat the Washington Redskins 28-23 as an 11-point favorite last week. The Jets are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five games on the road.

Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)

Despite being shellacked 56-10 by the Patriots last week, Buffalo has fared well after facing New England, going 14-1 ATS in 15 games after playing their AFC East rivals. The Bills are also 13-2 ATS following a SU division loss to any AFC East foe. Jacksonville is 24-11-1 ATS against non-division opponents. The Jaguars beat San Diego 24-17 as a 3-point favorite last week, Jacksonville’s second-straight win.
Buffalo is a solid 4-1 SU in its past five games and, more importantly this week, 4-1 SU and ATS in its past five against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 14-5 SU in their past 19 games at home. The total has gone over in five of Jacksonville’s past six.

Oakland Raiders (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
 
Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU in its past five home games against Oakland. Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its past six games, and, going back several seasons, 14-24 ATS on the road. The Raiders appear to have officially written of the season, losing six straight. Kansas City edged AFC West rival Oakland in the first meeting of the season on the road, 12-10. The Chiefs have won 27 of the past 35 head-to-head divisional battles (23-11-1 ATS). They are 12-3 ATS when playing their second division home game and 9-2 as favorites when the total is less than 35. Ten of the past 15 series matchups at Arrowhead Stadium have gone under, and all five of the past five meetings have also been under.
 

Houston Texans (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (6-4 SU, 7-2-1 ATS)
 
Cleveland is riding a five-game ATS winning streak, including last week’s wild finish against the Baltimore Ravens. Houston, winners of two straight, is a very strong 11-2 ATS coming off a SU and ATS win, but just 11-20 ATS as road underdogs. Perhaps surprisingly, Cleveland is a weak 2-9 SU as home favorites of 3½ points or less. But the Browns have covered the spread in four of five at home this year and are 3-0-1 as favorites. The Texans have gone over in 10 of 13 following a SU and ATS win. Cleveland, meanwhile, is all over the “over” – all 10 games have gone over this season. Houston is 2-4 ATS in its past six games on the road, and 2-5 ATS in its past seven overall.

Minnesota Vikings (4-6 SU, 4-4-2 ATS) at New York Giants (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
 
Minnesota has been alternating between wins and losses, so following that pattern the Vikings should lose to the Giants this week. But one stat that could end that pattern is that the road team has won six of eight meetings. The Vikings beat Oakland 29-22 as a 4.5-point favorite last week, while the Giants got past Detroit 16-10 as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota is 8-18-1 ATS as non-division road underdogs. The Giants are a respectable 22-10 at home after allowing 10 points or less. The Vikings have gone over the total at a rate of 13-4-2 as road underdogs of seven points or more, but the under is 5-1 in Minnesota’s past six road games.

New Orleans Saints (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (4-6 SU & ATS)
 
New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season, but one area in which it has little room for improvement is on road within its division, where the Saints have covered at a 20-4 clip. Carolina has done well as division home underdogs, cashing at an 8-0-1 clip. The Panthers are 22-11 ATS following a double-digit loss. The visitor has covered in 13 of the past 14 series meetings. Carolina beat the Saints 16-13 in the teams’ earlier meeting this season as three-point road dogs. Seven of the past 10 series tilts have ended up under. The Saints have gone over in 16 of 20 as division favorites on the road and the Panthers have done the same in 24 of 37 after allowing 28 points or more.

Washington Redskins (5-5 SU, 4-4-2 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4 SU & ATS)

Both these teams have won two straight. Washington is coming off a 28-23 loss to the NFC East rival New York Giants, a game it could have won were it not for a last-minute interception. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, found its offense big-time in a 31-7 blowout over the Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay is 3-11 ATS coming off back-to-back SU wins. But the Bucs have covered at a rate of 32-17-2 against non-division opponents at home. Washington is an impressive 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and 3-1-1 ATS on the road. Tampa Bay has gone under in 17 of 22 as home favorites. With Washington, though, there’s a major “over” trend: The total has gone over in five of Washington’s past five games, over in four of Washington’s past six games on the road, and over in four of Washington’s past six against Tampa Bay.

San Francisco 49ers (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5 SU, 7-2-1 ATS)
 
Arizona had won four straight and cashed three of four against NFC West foe San Francisco right up until the season opener, when they lost 20-17 ass three-point underdogs. The favorite has cashed at a 5-2-1 clip in the past eight meetings head-to-head. The 49ers are 0-7 ATS when the total is between 35½ and 42. They have failed to get the money in their last seven trips to the post. The over is 6-2 in the last eight games between the two teams. The Cardinals have gone over in 14 of 18 games when the number was between 35½ and 42. 

Baltimore Ravens (4-6 SU, 1-9 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (5-5 SU & ATS)

Baltimore has lost four straight and 0-5 ATS on the road this season. San Diego is 4-1 ATS at home this season. The Ravens are 22-9 ATS coming off a home loss, but 0-7 recently against conference opponents. The total has gone under in five of Baltimore’s past five games against San Diego, and under in four of Baltimore’s past six overall. The total has gone over in four of Baltimore’s past six on the road. Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its past six on the road against San Diego. San Diego is 12-2 SU in its past 14 at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) at New England Patriots (10-0 SU, 9-0-1 ATS)

These teams have not clashed since the 2005 Super Bowl, when the Patriots won the NFL championship with a 24-21 win over the Eagles. Philadelphia has covered the spread in 12 of 16 as double-digit road underdogs and five of its past six when facing teams from the AFC East. However, the Eagles are only 10-16-3 on the road against the AFC overall. New England is 11-1 ATS coming off a double-digit division win and 37-13-2 as non-division home favorites. Philadelphia has gone over the total in 14 of 18 as underdogs.

Miami Dolphins (0-10 SU, 3-4-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)

This is not an enviable position for the lowly Dolphins, as Pittsburgh should be steaming after losing to the New York Jets last Sunday. Miami is a very impressive 14-3-1 as non-division road underdogs of five points or more but, alas, the Dolphins are also 1-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road and 0-9 ATS following a road loss. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 10 of 12 at home when playing on Monday Night Football. The total has gone under in five of Miami’s past six games against Pittsburgh, and under in four of Miami’s past six overall. Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its past five at home.