2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Rise
By: Insider Edge Sports
Vanderbilt Commodores
2003 Record: 2-10
2004 Projected Record 6-5
Overview
Vanderbilt has been in a rut for years but this could be theyear they break
out with a 6 win season and a trip to a bowl game for the firsttime since
1982. As a matter of fact, that was the last year they had awinning record
so we are going out on a limb here. There wont be a moreexperienced team
in the SEC with 29 players coming back with at least three gamesof starting
experience along with more than 50 letter winners. With theexception of a
few backups, the entire two deep returns on both sides of theball.
Offensively, they should be able to match points with most oftheir
competition. They return 10 players on the unit with QB JayCutler leading
the way. Cutler is not well known but he had a very solid seasona year ago
and should improve again this year. His strong arm and runningability make
him a duel threat and one of the more dangerous signal callersin the SEC.
The Commodores scored 21 or more points 6 times last season,only the second
time that has happened in the last 5 years. Offensive tackleJustin
Geisinger was named to the 2004 Outland Trophy Watch List. Injurieshave
hurt the defensive side of the ball in past years so remaininghealthy is a
must for the entire returning lineup. LB Moses Osemwegie andDE Jovan Haye
lead the way with Haye being named to the Preseason Bronko NagurskiAward
Watch List.
Schedule
They should come out of the first half of the year with atleast four wins
in the first seven games. Games against Navy, Mississippi St.,Rutgers and
Eastern Kentucky are all must wins (or should be wins) and theymust pull
off an upset or two to get bowl eligible. The best options forthat are a
home game against South Carolina and road games at Kentuckyand Ole Miss.
Their 2-10 record from a season ago is a little misleading.They suffered
some bad luck losing close games to Ole Miss and Georgia Techwhile hanging
around in losses to Mississippi State, South Carolina, Floridaand Navy.
Those close games need to be won this year and with their experience,they
should be able to pull those out.
Best Chance For An Upset
September 4th South Carolina
Summary
There will be no undefeated season or an SEC title for thissquad, but they
could be a dangerous team if everyone stays healthy. Experiencecould win
them a couple games that they could not have won a season ago.Because of
their 2-10 record from last year, they should get some valueearly on in the
season and the points should be a plenty. An outright win overUSC in their
opener at home might not be as implausible as once thought.
Cincinnati Bearcats
2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 9-2
Overview
This was a veteran team last year, and most of the squad shouldtake that
experience and benefit from it in a big way in 2004. One toomany close
losses last season (5 by a touchdown or less including fourlosses when the
Bearcats held the lead in the fourth quarter) cost head coachRick Minter
his job. They were outscored by a total of only 15 points lastseason
(305-290) and one or two more wins would have gotten them ina bowl game and
Minter would most likely still be around. That is not the casehowever as
Mark Dantonio comes in and inherits an excellent team, whichis usually not
the case for a new coach coming in. The offense should explodewith QB Gino
Guidugli operating behind a strong line and experienced wideouts.He is
coming off a very disappointing season and that alone shouldfire him up for
his senior year. Now is the time to prove to everyone that hecan play at
the next level. A healthy Richard Hall at RB will help balanceout an
offense that averaged 24.9 ppg last season, a number that shouldbe
surpassed this season. The defense needs improvement, especiallyin the
secondary but they should be very solid up front. Itspossible that if the
holes are filled, this could be one of the best stop units inthe
conference, as they possess one of, if not the best, defensiveend in Trent
Cole. Allowing 40 or more points three times cannot happen againthis
season.
Schedule
Starting off the season at Ohio St. doesnt help muchbut Dantonio was hired
away from the Buckeyes so he should be able to put togethera very good game
plan for the opener if nothing else. A 7-1 start is not outof the question
but neither is a 5-3 start. Home games against Memphis and TCUwill be very
tough but they are the games they need to win to elevate themselvesfrom
good to great. Games at Southern Miss and Louisville in 2 oftheir final 3
games will likely determine the CUSA Champion. This is not aneasy schedule
by any means but it is one that they should take care of iftheir talent
plays like it is capable of.
Best Chance For An Upset
November 6th at Southern Miss
Summary
The Bearcats have all the makings of a title contender andas long as they
dont underachieve like they did a season ago, they shouldbe right in the
hunt. Guidugli will have to cut down on his mistakes while thedefense will
need to create opportunities for the offense. All the returningexperience
should pay off big time and those close losses from last yearwill turn into
close wins. Because of the improvements on both sides of theball, those
close wins might turn into blowouts, giving us some easy coverwins.
Texas A&M Aggies
2003 Record: 4-8
2004 Projected Record 7-4
Overview
Dennis Franchiones first season in College Station wasa rocky one to say
the least. A 4-8 record is not acceptable in College Stationand it is
imperative for him to turn things around right now. He has theexperienced
weapons to get it done now and those weapons must play up totheir ability
with QB Reggie McNeal at the top of the list. He passed foronly a 51%
completion percentage last season but he was banged up moreoften than not.
A healthy McNeal can take this offense as far as he wants, especiallywith
his great receiving corps and with Courtney Lewis in the backfield.The
coaching staff is starting to reap the benefits of last yearsstellar
recruiting class. After several of the incoming freshmen wereheld out of
action during last years 4-8 season, Franchione was second-guessedat
times. However, with a year in the system, many of those classof 2003
recruits are now holding down, or vying for, #1 spots on thedepth chart.
Amazingly, last season it was the defense that looked bad mostof the time,
something that the Aggie faithful are not used to seeing. TheTexas A&M run
defense turned surprisingly soft allowing 225 ypg and 31 touchdowns.
However, defensive line is expected to be the most improvedposition on this
years squad. During last years transition from the3-4 to a 4-3, the
Aggies had several players trying to play the DE spot, who weremore fit at
DT. Dont expect to see opponents scoring 38.8 ppg likethey did a season
ago.
Schedule
This is still a young team despite the return of 14 startersthat will need
a few games to get everything together. Starting things offat Utah isn’t
the place to do that but they return home for 3 straight afterthat. Two of
those games are against Clemson and Kansas St., both top 20teams, so a win
there will be a huge boost for the remainder of the season whiletwo wins
can go even further. The good thing is that 2 of their 4 Big12 road games
are winnable at Iowa St. and at Baylor. Actually theyare must wins since
the Big 12 will be as tough as ever. They should be 6-2 headinginto their
final 3 games.
Best Chance For An Upset
October 2nd Kansas St
Summary
The defense can only go up from where they were last season,how far up they
go depends on how much the returnees learned from their experiences.They
are getting in some talented JUCO transfers as well that shouldgive the
unit a boost. The wild card to their success or lack thereofis McNeal. If
he remains as inconsistent as he has been thus far, he willnot be starting
for long. He has the talent to get the job done and we thinkhe does it.
If not, highly touted Stephen McGee will get his chance early.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 7-4
Overview
This could be Jim Grobes best Demon Deacon team yet withas much returning
talent as anyone in the ACC. They return 14 players on bothsides with the
defense getting 8 back. They hope to use their experience fromlast season
to improve their total defense that ranked 107th in the countryin 2003. A
change to the 4-3 will help things before they even get startedsince there
is more talent and depth to allow for it. They allowed 40 ormore points in
4 of their last 5 games last year so the change will do themgood.
Offensively, it will come down to the play of the young offensiveline.
Normally its hard to back teams without experienced linesbut all 3 of the
new starters do have playing time under their belts and allare at least
juniors. 302-pound junior Wesley Bryant is a transfer from Floridaand his
presence will be most important to a consistent line. They havea very big
job. RB Chris Barclay is a back not many people have heard ofbut after
this year, they will certainly know his name. He was slowedby an early
ankle injury last season and was limited to 1,192 yards butif healthy, look
for a huge season. The key on offense will be consistency withQB Cory
Randolph needing to become a bit more of a passing threat.
Schedule
The Deacons have one of the most advantageous schedules inall of the
country this upcoming season. After starting the season withtwo road
games, which they should split, they return home to play 6 oftheir next 7
games. Not all 6 games are gimmies by any stretch but facingFlorida St.
and Virginia Tech at home rather than on the road is a big advantage.They
finish the season at Miami and at Maryland but by then, we willalready know
if they are contenders or just pretenders.
Best Chance For An Upset
October 9th Virginia Tech
Summary
With the new ACC starting this season (sans Boston College),the conference
is that much more difficult and for someone like Wake Forestto win the
title in next to impossible. But dont expect them to justroll over for
everyone either. Grobe has done a superb job in getting topplayers to come
to Winston-Salem and now is the time to showcase that talent.While their
record may not improve all that much from last year, their competitiveness
will. They lost their last 5 games by 19.2 ppg that wonthappen this
year. Another team that should get good value early.
Penn State Nittany Lions
2003 Record: 3-9
2004 Projected Record 8-4
Overview
Now is the time for this program to get back to their traditionalwinning
ways or it could signal the end of a great college footballpowerhouse.
After back-to-back losing seasons in 2000 and 2001, the NittanyLions looked
to be back with a solid 9-3 2002. However, after going 3-9 lastyear, there
are more worries. The talent is here for them to have a verysuccessful
season but the most important part of their season will comedown to
discipline. They were to get back most of their defense fromlast year but
suspensions after the spring knocked their returnees down tojust 4 on that
side of the ball. New faces will toughen them up. The offenseis the side
that needs the most improvement and the first step has alreadybeen taken
with a new offensive coordinator in Galen Hall. The offensefinished 103rd
in total offense last year and one would think with the lossof their
receivers and backs, it might even get worse. Not really, asthe incumbents
possess more ability and talent even though they may be young.QB Zack
Mills must stay healthy for the offense to click and pull together.The
Paterno formula has always been to develop players who turninto stars by
their junior and senior seasons, and that has to be the casethis year on
both sides.
Schedule
Not the easiest schedule to turn a team around with but notthe most
difficult either. They will be at least 2-1 heading to Wisconsinand
Minnesota to start their Big 10 slate. Those two road gamescould be huge,
as a split should propel them to a 6-4 record before their seasonending
showdown against Michigan St. They miss Michigan this seasonand 7-4 gets
them to an ever-important bowl game. If they miss out on anotherbowl,
things might be changing in Happy Valley.
Best Chance For An Upset
September 25th at Wisconsin
Summary
This could be the season that saves Paternos coachingcareer. A winning
season and a bowl game will ease some of the scrutiny whileanother losing
season could spell the end of an era. Its up to the coachingstaff to get
the players to play with pride while its up to the playersto leave it all
on the field. Apparently the coaches are doing their part sinceword from
campus is that the players went through some of the toughestpractices they
have ever experienced during spring practices. Lets seeif they pay off
with a big start to the season.
Our next installment will focus on teams heading in the oppositedirection
in 2004.
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