It almost didn’t happen, but the Kentucky Wildcats are in the Final Four. They edged past the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+11) 68-66 to run their undefeated record to 38-0 (19-17-2 ATS). But the Wildcats are only 1-3 ATS at the Big Dance, and this Saturday, they’re giving five points to the Wisconsin Badgers (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS) as we go to press.
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It’s difficult to find any betting value on any undefeated team. This spot is even tougher for chalkeaters; Wisconsin has the top-ranked offense in Division I according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats. The Badgers also employ one of the slowest offenses in college hoops. Fewer possessions means fewer opportunities for Kentucky to build a big lead and cover the spread.
If you’re a Kentucky supporter and you can’t bring yourself to fade the ‘Cats, there’s always the under. Kentucky is the best defensive team in Division I, taking the under to the pay window in three straight games and 15 of its last 18 non-conference matchups. Slowpoke Wisconsin has the under at 9-3 over the past dozen games against the SEC. Saturday’s game (8:49 PM ET, TBS) has a total of 132 at press time.
PICK: Wisconsin +5