Winning Strategies for Betting the NBA

The NBA is probably the most predictable major professional sport in the world, but that does not make betting on the NBA any easier. While there is no such thing as a lock, it’s possible to follow some easy tips and ride a consistent strategy to win without running incredibly cold, which is more common in sports with more variance.

Test and Review

While this is not anything specific to NBA strategy, this is something that a lot of players will never do and it can cause a lot of unnecessary holes in your game for a long time. Any given day, you make decisions on what you are going to bet that night and there are four ways those decisions that can become.

You can make the right process decision, but that can result in a win or a loss. You can also make a bad play that breaks your way or punishes you like it should. The biggest thing that you need to do after those decisions are made is to determine what happened and why you were right or wrong.

While this can seem like an unnecessary part of your process, it should quickly open your eyes to things that you could have missed and you will be less likely to make that mistake moving forward. In any form of sports betting, the “right” play is far from a guarantee, but it does put you in the best position to become successful.

Attack Inefficiencies

While betting on the NBA, you are going to run across a few different situations that can become very profitable, very quickly. You should have injury news and updates sent to your phone and attempt to react accordingly to them as quickly as possible. Smart bookies and pay per head sites want to limit this exploitation and they will often take the lines down when the news is announced, but there is often a buffer of a minute or two where you can still jump on the bad line when a superstar sits.

In addition to this, you can also jump on player props of the players that the recently announced out player would effect. Player props are not the priority of the books and they are usually a bit more delayed than the line itself because most people instantly rush to bet the more common bets.

Utilize Advanced Metrics

The NBA is very focused on providing a lot of advanced statistics that are tracked throughout each game and then uploaded to later that day or early the next in most circumstances. I think that these statistics can be a gold mine for anyone that takes time to read and understand their overall importance in predicting the future.

These stats can help in betting things like the total and spread based on basic and advanced pace metrics. Lineup and player combination ratings can often give you even more in-depth insight to how a team may play any given night if you can predict what their rotations will look like in a certain matchup as well.

My favorite way to use these metrics is by using player props. You can easily find point, assist, and rebound props on most key players and these numbers are often not that sharp. Particularly when a situation changes and they under or over perform their actual expectations. Vegas seems to ignore the statistics that look at potential assists, rebounding chances, and overall touches.

I have had great success jumping on players with assist numbers way too low for their potential assists or players that are just not getting the rebounding chances that they typically will moving forward based on the advanced metrics. Determining what each stat is and how predictable they are from game-to-game is a bit of a feeling out process, but it is very much worth it when you get the hang of it. Finally, of course when you are ready to bet the NBA – do so at our favorite pay per head bookie site and compare statistics with our player props.

More pay per head tips:

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