We are about to enter the business end of the UEFA Champions League. Compelling matchups that have a real sense of jeopardy for all teams involved. The UCL is, of course, a big draw for soccer bettors, but it can be a difficult competition to call. Sure, some years, we can have overwhelming favorites, but it’s more often the case that you have a clutch of teams with big chances. Indeed, the betting favorite for the majority of the tournament, Liverpool, exited in the last round.
But with the quarter-finals on the horizon, we thought we would ask some questions about teams, their odds, and their chances.
Does PSG Offer Value?
There are a couple of ways you can look at PSG’s Champions League hopes. In terms of raw sports betting, they are second-favorites for the tournament and deservedly so. The way the Parisians dispatched Liverpool (the previous tournament favorites) in the Last 16, coming from behind to deservedly qualify at Anfield. PSG feels more like a team these days than a collection of superstars struggling to gel. Yet, the odds of 10/3 (+333) for a first Champions League triumph feel short. It will be interesting to see how things pan out against Aston Villa.
Any Value in the Outsiders?
Broadly speaking, there are three teams that should be considered outsiders of the eight quarter-finalists – Inter Milan (10/1), Aston Villa (25/1), and Borussia Dortmund (40/1). Everyone else is priced below 7/1. You can understand why Dortmund are rank outsiders, as they have had a turgid season in the Bundesliga. The Champions League has been their only solace. Yet, while Inter has a chance of getting past Bayern Munich, the one we really like for some betting value is Aston Villa. Coach Unai Emery is a master at cup competitions, and we think they can beat anyone on their day, including quarter-final opponent, PSG.
Pressure On or Off for Arsenal?
Most of the teams on this list have obligations at home. You can maybe argue that PSG and Bayern have their domestic titles almost wrapped up, but they can’t take anything for granted. Arsenal are out of the Premier League title race, and they are almost guaranteed Champions League qualification next season, so Mikel Arteta can throw everything at the UCL. The question is whether that will weigh on a team and coach that are desperate for top-tier silverware. Or will the gloves-off approach free up Arsenal to play to their potential? It’s a tough question, and sportsbooks seem to be on the fence with the Gunners.
Does Barcelona Merit Favorite Tag?
After Liverpool’s exit, Barcelona was installed as the favorite for the 2025 Champions League. Why? Arguably, it’s down to the weak opponents (Borussia Dortmund) rather than any sense of conviction that this is the best soccer team in Europe. Yes, Barca currently tops La Liga, but you can argue that this is not a vintage version of the Catalonians, at least not yet. Among the teams to have beaten Barcelona this year are Osasuna, Las Palmas, and Leganes. Barca’s form has really picked up of late, however. As with PSG, odds of 3/1 might not convince all bettors.
Balance with Bayern?
Bayern Munich’s odds of 5/1 arguably offer the best middle-ground between value and having a real chance to win the Champions League Final. The Bavarians play Inter Milan in the quarter-finals, a tricky tie no doubt, but one where Bayern will be favorite to progress. By the time the semi-finals come around, Bayern should have the Bundesliga wrapped up, giving coach Vincent Kompany a little more flexibility. Like Barcelona, Bayern has not been perfect this season, but there is a little bit of additional value in the odds backing the Germans.
