As we inch closer to the kickoff of the 2024 NFL season, excitement and anticipation are building up among football fans and bettors alike. The new campaign gets underway on September 15th as the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead. The pair faced off in last season’s AFC Championship game, with Andy Reid’s side ultimately emerging victorious en route to a second straight Super Bowl triumph, and Lamar Jackson and Co. will head to Missouri looking for revenge.
While that particular clash is too close to call, there are some games in week one where the lines look particularly friendly to the punter. Here are our way-too-early spread picks for the opening week of the 2024 season.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots head to Cincinnati as significant 9.5-point underdogs, with NFL betting lines at Bovada pricing them as long as +320 on the money line. This may seem daunting for Pats backers, especially against a Bengals team that has emerged as a heavyweight in the AFC in recent years and with superstar quarterback Joe Burrow back fully fit and firing on all cylinders. However, there are a few reasons why the Patriots could cover this spread.
Firstly, Cincy is a notoriously slow starter. In each of the last two seasons, the Bengals have lost their first two games of the campaign. Last term they were thumped by the Cleveland Browns in week one and the year before they fell to an overtime defeat against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While they may well emerge victorious in this one, we don’t see them winning by a touchdown and a field goal, judging by their early season performances in recent years.
Secondly, the Patriots head into the 2024 season without Bill Belichick as their head coach for the first time in over two decades. Jerod Mayo is the new man at the helm and he will be looking to stamp his authority on his side straight away. He has a new franchise quarterback in the ranks in the form of Drake Maye, who was selected with the third overall pick in the recent draft, and he will be hoping to fill the cleats of Tom Brady after Mac Jones failed to do that following the GOATs departure to Tampa Bay four years ago.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are favored by 6.5 points in their Week 1 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, and on home turf at a raucous Highmark, we fancy them to cover this comfortably. Josh Allen and the offense in New York State are expected to come out firing on all cylinders, laying down a marker and underlying their Lombardi credentials.
Even though his wide receiving arsenal has been somewhat depleted following the departure of Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, the Bills should still have enough about them to secure a comfortable victory.
With an arsenal of weapons at his disposal and a strengthened running game following the continued development of James Cook, their former University of Wyoming star under center should have little trouble putting points on the board against a Cardinals defense that struggled last season.
The visitors are undergoing significant changes and Kyler Murray is still yet to live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him when he was selected with the first overall pick of the 2019 draft.
To make matters worse for the former Heisman winner, Buffalo’s defense is notorious for its ability to create turnovers and pressure the quarterback, and that should be enough to see them win by more than a touchdown on week one.
Houston Texans
Last season, the Houston Texans had a breakout year, winning the AFC South for the first time in four years. C. J. Stroud announced himself to the league as a bonafide superstar of a quarterback, winning the offensive Rookie of the Year award after posting blistering numbers throughout the season. He led the team all the way to the Divisional Round of the playoffs before ultimately losing to the Ravens, but not before both he and his side had earned plenty of plaudits.
This close season, the Lone Star state outfit has strengthened, bringing Stefon Diggs from the Bills as well as Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon. As such, they should have far too much for the Indianapolis Colts to handle in week one, and they should win by two or more points.
As mentioned, the Texans have quietly put together a promising roster, while their development under DeMeco Ryans has been nothing short of miraculous. The Colts, meanwhile, are in a state of transition. With a new quarterback in the form of former Florida Gator Anthony Richardson, a fourth overall pick in the recent draft, likely starting under center Indianapolis may need time to find its rhythm. Stroud certainly does not, and he may well run roughshod over Lucas Oil Stadium.
