Temple vs Central Florida Preview & Free Pick [11/1/18]

Temple (5-3) at Central Florida (7-0)
When: Thursday, November 1st 2018
Where: Spectrum Stadium,
Orlando, Florida

Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Central Florida -12/54.5


The Central Florida Knights might be undefeated and a top 10 team in the country, but they haven’t won anything yet in regards to their own conference with just a few games left on the schedule. The ninth-ranked Knights will host the Temple Owls on Thursday night in Orlando with first place in the AAC East Division on the line, as both teams come in 4-0 in conference play. The big question coming into Thursday’s tilt is the availability of UCF quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate McKenzie Milton, who has accounted for 22 touchdowns this season. Milton missed the 37-10 victory at East Carolina on October 20th and coach Josh Heupel told reporters it will be a game-time decision whether he will be under center for the Knights. Freshman Darriel Mack Jr. took Milton’s place versus the Pirates and totaled 189 yards of offense with a touchdown. Despite the backup QB playing, UCF still accumulated 427 yards of offense and will be tested against a strong defense in the Owls. Temple comes in riding a three-game winning streak, leaning on a defense that is 22nd nationally in yards per game against (330.5) and fourth in passing yards allowed (147.5). The Owls, who dropped a 45-19 decision to the Knights in Philadelphia last year, are in the middle of a brutal stretch of games. They beat then-No. 22 Cincinnati last time out and faces No. 17 Houston (7-1), followed by South Florida (7-1), the next two weeks. Keep an eye on the Temple injury report this week, as defensive tackle Freddie Booth-Lloyd (undisclosed) and running back Ryquell Armstead (ankle) will be game-time decisions.


The Owls defense has recorded five touchdowns this season and is led by junior linebacker Shaun Bradley, who has a team-leading 53 tackles. Senior tackle Michael Dogbe leads the team with six sacks, but the Owls rank just 91st against the run. Armstead, who has 626 yards rushing, has missed the last two games and junior Jager Gardner gained 108 yards on 26 carries in his place the past two games combined. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Russo has completed just 56.5 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns along with 10 interceptions. His top target is senior wideout Ventrell Bryant (28 catches, 395 yards), who has at least one reception in 43 straight games.

The Knights chewed-up the East Carolina defense with a total of 316 yards on the ground with Mack rushing for a season-best 120 and sophomore Greg McCrae totaling a career-high 99 with a touchdown. UCF’s offense obviously runs better with Milton under center, and he has a trio of receivers that have benefited from his talent. Sophomores Gabriel Davis (33 catches, 493 yards, five TDs) and Tre Nixon (27, 364, three), along with junior Dredrick Snelson (24, 310, two), are having strong seasons for the Knights. The defense is not too shabby either, forcing 18 turnovers this season and ranking third in the nation in turnover margin (+1.86).


With or without Milton, UCF should have no trouble with this Temple team, who is getting a little more respect than they deserve. Temple’s three wins in AAC play have come against Tulsa, Navy, and East Carolina – who have a combined 1-11 conference mark. I like the Knights in this one.

Pick: Central Florida -10.5

https://youtu.be/qVh41nZw0-A


Betting Trends:

  • Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
  • Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
  • Owls are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 conference games.
  • Owls are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Owls are 43-14 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Owls are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.
  • Owls are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS win.
  • Owls are 41-18 ATS in their last 59 road games.
  • Owls are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
  • Owls are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
  • Owls are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Knights are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Knights are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
  • Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Knights are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
  • Knights are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Knights are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Knights are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
  • Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 games in November.
  • Under is 5-1 in Owls last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 14-3 in Owls last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Owls last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 14-4 in Owls last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 12-4 in Owls last 16 games on grass.
  • Under is 5-2 in Owls last 7 Thursday games.
  • Under is 12-5 in Owls last 17 conference games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 7-0 in Knights last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-1 in Knights last 8 games following a bye week.
  • Over is 6-1 in Knights last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Knights last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 13-3 in Knights last 16 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games in November.
  • Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games on grass.
  • Under is 7-3 in Knights last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-3-1 in Knights last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

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