Stanford vs Notre Dame Preview & Free Pick [9/29/18]

Stanford (4-0) at Notre Dame (4-0)
When: Saturday, September 29th 2018
Where: Notre Dame Stadium,
South Bend, Indiana

Time: 7:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -2.5/49


The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were a perfect 3-0 heading into last week’s contest at Wake Forest with quarterback Brandon Wimbush leading the way, but head coach Brian Kelly decided to roll the dice and switch QBs in order to give his offense a boost. The move paid off as Ian Book accounted for five touchdowns (three rushing, two passing) as the Irish crushed the Demon Deacons 56-27 and almost went over the game total of 60 all by themselves. Book will get his first huge test on Saturday as the eighth-ranked Fighting Irish host the seventh-ranked Stanford Cardinal in a game with huge playoff implications. Right now, Stanford is the only ranked team left on Notre Dame’s schedule, clearing the path for the Irish to possibly seize a playoff berth two months from now. Stanford trailed 24-7 at the half against No. 20 Oregon last week, but an 80-yard fumble return in the third quarter by linebacker Joey Alfieri sparked a remarkable 38-31 overtime win. Despite allowing 31 points to the Ducks, Stanford is ranked 10th in FBS in points allowed (13.5), and will be ready for Notre Dame’s new-look offense. This is the 22nd consecutive year that these two teams will face off with the Irish lead the all-time series 18-13, but Stanford has won the last three. Notre Dame is just 1-6 in this rivalry with Kelly as head coach, while Cardinal coach David Shaw is 5-2 against the Irish.


Stanford QB KJ Costello threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon, including a 23-yarder to tight end Colby Parkinson in overtime that gave Stanford the lead before cornerback Alameen Murphy’s interception in the end zone sealed it. Preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Bryce Love rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries after sitting out Week 3 to rest some minor undisclosed injuries. Love enjoyed success against the Irish in last season’s matchup, running for 125 yards on 20 carries in last year’s 38-20 home win. This is the second of six consecutive tough games on the Cardinal schedule, as they face an up-and-coming Utah team next week at home.

Book was able to get the ball downfield to his outside playmakers, resulting in 59 points and 566 total yards, both season highs for the Irish. Notre Dame’s wide receivers hauled-in 25 balls on the day and that opened up huge holes for the running game, where sophomore Jafar Armstrong recorded 98 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries, but getting through this Stanford line will be a much tougher task. The Irish offense could receive a big boost on Saturday as senior running back Dexter Williams, who averaged 9.2 yards per carry in a backup role last season, is expected to return from a four-game suspension. Notre Dame’s defense is ranked 65th overall including 77th against the pass (223.5 yards a game).


Book may be the answer for this Irish offense, but this will be his biggest test and its only his second game. Bettors jumped all over Notre Dame, moving the line from 2.5 to 5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. Shaw has outcoached Kelly in these matchups and has the combination of offense and defense – not spectacular, but solid – to keep this close as possibly pull off a victory. I’ll take the points.

Pick: Stanford +5.5

https://youtu.be/I1SLLLJYuaM


Betting Trends:

  • Cardinal are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cardinal are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Cardinal are 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
  • Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  • Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cardinal last 6 vs. INDEP.
  • Under is 9-2 in Cardinal last 11 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 non-conference games.
  • Under is 12-4 in Cardinal last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 10-4 in Cardinal last 14 games overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Cardinal last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 38-16 in Cardinal last 54 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 home games.
  • Under is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last 8 games overall.
  • Under is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last 8 non-conference games.
  • Under is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 games on fieldturf.
  • Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 12-3 in Fighting Irish last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 16-5 in Fighting Irish last 21 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 vs. Pac-12.
  • Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 13-6 in Fighting Irish last 19 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Notre Dame.
  • Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

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