Saturday’s MLB Baseball Free Picks & Predictions [7/4/26]

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**All plays are Listed Pitchers and trends are courtesy of Don Best Sports and are through 7/2/26**


Pittsburgh (Ashcraft) at Washington (Littell) – 11:05 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 Saturday games.
Hot: Pirates are 5-0 in Ashcraft’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Hot: Pirates are 6-1 in Ashcraft’s last 7 road starts.
Cold: Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
Cold: Pirates are 1-4 in Ashcraft’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Pirates are 3-11 in their last 14 vs. National League East.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Ashcraft’s last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Ashcraft’s last 6 road starts.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Ashcraft’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 on grass.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 overall.
Hot: Over is 11-1 in Ashcraft’s last 12 starts on grass.

Head-to-Head
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Pick: Nationals +145


St Louis (Leahy) at Chicago Cubs (Imanaga) – 8:08 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Cubs are 10-0 in Imanaga’s last 10 Saturday starts.
Hot: Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Hot: Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Cold: Cubs are 1-6 in Imanaga’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Cold: Cardinals are 1-4 in Leahy’s last 5 road starts.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Imanaga’s last 4 Saturday starts.
Hot: Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. National League Central.
Hot: Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 on grass.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.
Cold: Cardinals are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.

Pick: Cardinals +137


NY Mets (Manaea) at Atlanta (Sale) – 8:08 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Braves are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Hot: Braves are 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Hot: Braves are 9-2 in Sale’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cold: Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cold: Mets are 1-10 in Manaea’s last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Cold: Mets are 1-8 in their last 9 games on grass.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Hot: Under is 3-0-1 in Sale’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Hot: Under is 3-0-1 in Manaea’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Hot: Over is 2-0-2 in Sale’s last 4 home starts.
Hot: Over is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Over is 8-1-2 in Manaea’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Head-to-Head
Mets are 6-16 in the last 22 meetings in Atlanta.

Pick: Braves -1.5 +125

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San Francisco (Ray) at Colorado (Sugano) – 8:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Rockies are 6-0 in Sugano’s last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Rockies are 4-1 in Sugano’s last 5 starts.
Hot: Rockies are 4-1 in Sugano’s last 5 starts on grass.
Cold: Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 vs. National League West.
Cold: Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Cold: Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 6-0 in Sugano’s last 6 home starts.
Hot: Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 home games.
Over is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 on grass.
Over is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 overall.
Under is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 6-2 in Sugano’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Colorado.
Giants are 52-16 in the last 68 meetings.
Giants are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado.

Pick: Giants -126


Milwaukee (Woodruff) at Arizona (Kelly) – 9:40 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
Hot: Brewers are 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 road starts.
Hot: Brewers are 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 starts vs. National League West.
Cold: Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Kelly’s last 6 starts.
Cold: Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games.
Cold: Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Kelly’s last 5 starts on grass.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 7-0 in Kelly’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Under is 6-0 in Kelly’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Kelly’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Kelly’s last 4 starts overall.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Hot: Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 vs. National League Central.

Head-to-Head
Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Arizona.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 +107


San Diego (Canning) at LA Dodgers (Yamamoto) – 10:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Dodgers are 5-1 in Yamamoto’s last 6 starts on grass.
Hot: Dodgers are 4-1 in Yamamoto’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Hot: Dodgers are 4-1 in Yamamoto’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Cold: Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games on grass.
Cold: Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 overall.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Canning’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Hot: Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Hot: Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Cold: Padres are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
Padres are 25-62 in the last 87 meetings in Los Angeles.

Pick: Padres +1.5 -105

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Minnesota (Matthews) at NY Yankees (Beck) – 1:35 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
Hot: Yankees are 5-1 in Rodon’s last 6 starts.
Hot: Yankees are 5-1 in Rodon’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Cold: Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 games on grass.
Cold: Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Cold: Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 overall.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 7-0 in Twins last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Matthews’ last 5 Saturday starts.
Hot: Over is 7-1 in Matthews’ last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Matthews’ last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Hot: Over is 8-2 in Twins last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Head-to-Head
Twins are 14-51 in the last 65 meetings in New York.
Twins are 13-40 in the last 53 meetings.

Pick: Twins +139


Detroit (Flaherty) at Texas (Rocker) – 4:05 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Hot: Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cold: Tigers are 1-7 in Flaherty’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Cold: Tigers are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
Cold: Tigers are 1-6 in their last 7 Saturday games.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Flaherty’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
Hot: Under is 5-0-1 in Rocker’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Rocker’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Rocker’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Hot: Under is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Hot: Under is 6-1-1 in Rockers last 8 starts overall.

Head-to-Head
Over is 15-6-4 in the last 25 meetings in Texas.
Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Cold: Tigers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.

Pick: Rangers +103


Toronto (Bieber) at Seattle (Gilbert) – 4:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Mariners are 8-0 in Gilbert’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Mariners are 7-0 in Gilbert’s last 7 starts with 6 days of rest.
Hot: Mariners are 6-0 in Gilbert’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cold: Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
Cold: Mariners are 0-4 in Gilbert’s last 4 Saturday starts.
Cold: Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 Saturday games.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 Saturday games.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Bieber’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Seattle.
Hot: Blue Jays are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Seattle.
Hot: Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
Hot: Blue Jays are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Pick: Blue Jays +137

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Chicago White Sox (Burke) at Cleveland (Messick) – 7:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Hot: Guardians are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Hot: Guardians are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Cold: White Sox are 1-6 in Burke’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Cold: Guardians are 1-5 in Messick’s last 6 starts.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 8-0-1 in Burke’s last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
Hot: Under is 7-0-1 in Burke’s last 8 Saturday starts.
Hot: Under is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 Saturday games.
Hot: Under is 7-1 in Messick’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 Saturday games.
Hot: Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 on grass.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Cold: White Sox are 1-10 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland.
White Sox are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings.

Pick: Guardians -1.5 +152


Tampa Bay (Rasmussen) at Houston (Brown) – 7:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
Hot: Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Cold: Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 Saturday games.
Astros are 2-7 in Brown’s last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
Rays are 2-7 in Rasmussen’s last 9 starts on grass.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 Saturday games.
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 on grass.
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
Hot: Under is 4-0-1 in Rasmussen’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Brown’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Head-to-Head
Under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Houston.
Under is 38-15-3 in the last 56 meetings.

Pick: Astros -104


Boston (Gray) at LA Angels (Aldegheri) – 9:38 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Red Sox are 5-0 in Gray’s last 5 road starts.
Hot: Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games.
Hot: Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 Saturday games.
Cold: Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Cold: Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 5-0-1 in Aldegheri’s last 6 starts on grass.
Hot: Under is 5-0-1 in Aldegheri’s last 6 starts overall.
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Aldegheri’s last 5 home starts.
Hot: Under is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Aldegheri’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Gray’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Head-to-Head
Cold: Red Sox are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
Cold: Red Sox are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.

Pick: Angels +144

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Baltimore (Young) at Cincinnati (Greene) – 7:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Orioles are 6-1 in Young’s last 7 road starts.
Hot: Reds are 5-1 in Greene’s last 6 home starts.
Hot: Orioles are 8-2 in Young’s last 10 starts.
Cold: Orioles are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cold: Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Cold: Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Under is 3-0-1 in Greene’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Over is 5-1-1 in Young’s last 7 interleague starts.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Young’s last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
Orioles are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.

Pick: Reds -117


Philadelphia (Luzardo) at Kansas City (Wacha) – 8:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Phillies are 7-0 in Luzardo’s last 7 road starts.
Hot: Phillies are 7-0 in Luzardo’s last 7 starts.
Hot: Phillies are 6-0 in Luzardo’s last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cold: Royals are 0-8 in Wacha’s last 8 starts on grass.
Cold: Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Cold: Royals are 1-8 in Wacha’s last 9 starts.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Royals last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Luzardo’s last 6 starts on grass.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 interleague home games.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Luzardo’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.
Hot: Phillies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.
Hot: Phillies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Pick: CLICK HERE


Miami (Alcantara) at Athletics (Civale) – 9:40 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Marlins are 6-0 in Alcantara’s last 6 starts.
Hot: Marlins are 6-0 in Alcantara’s last 6 starts on grass.
Hot: Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Cold: A’s are 0-4 in Civale’s last 4 starts.
Cold: A’s are 0-4 in Civale’s last 4 starts on grass.
Cold: A’s are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Alcantara’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Alcantara’s last 4 starts on grass.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Alcantara’s last 4 road starts.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Alcantara’s last 4 starts overall.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in A’s last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Over is 8-1 in Alcantara’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Pick: Marlins -119