The NBA season is a demanding endeavor. It takes approximately 26 weeks from start to finish, and every team plays 82 games during that time. There are back-to-back games, and it often requires a lot of travel, adding to the strain.
For those who bet on NBA games, the schedule information can significantly impact how they plan and place their wagers. It provides additional insight into the team dynamics and the player’s abilities. In this article, we’ll dive into how load management and rest can affect NBA team performance.
The Science of Rest and Performance
Research consistently shows that rest is as important to performance as exercise itself. Statistics have also shown that the team that has had an additional day of rest will almost always perform better than the team that hasn’t.
For instance, a 2020 study published in the European Journal of Sport Science revealed that a team that plays back-to-back games performs worse than its usual average. NBA stars like Andre Iguodala have also said that factoring sleep into their overall routine can be credited for their success. Lack of sleep has been proven to reduce reaction accuracy and speed and lead to worse decision-making.
Load Management
Load management is somewhat of a buzzword in the NBA lately. It refers to a strategy of resting players throughout the season so that they are at their peak performance for important matches. The term highlights the importance of rest, and players have begun to emphasize its place in the schedule.
In 2023, the Brooklyn Nets were fined for not using several of their starting players and deciding to rest them before a more important game. The league fined them $25,000 after they benched Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Cam Johnson.
Betting Implications and Schedule Challenges
The NBA schedule presents a unique challenge for both the team and its players. In most cases, the teams play four games in five nights, and the last game is usually the one in which they underperform, regardless of the opponent.
This has betting implications, and now that every imaginable statistic is available to bettors online, crypto sports betting sites adjust their odds based on the players’ schedule. This goes for simple moneyline bets but also for smaller parlay wagers.
A Few Examples
Several examples from high-stakes games demonstrate that the way a team organizes its schedule can significantly impact the outcome and surprise everyone.
Mikal Bridges in 2024
Mikal Bridges of the Brooklyn Nets had the longest consecutive streak in history, with 392 games played. He has, therefore, played in every game since his 2018 draft. The media noticed the streak and started commenting on it as a milestone but also as a reason to discuss how exhausted some of the players were.
However, the team played into the hype by finding ways to prolong the streak without tiring Bridges out. It meant that he played in every game but was quickly subbed out when he wasn’t essential to the team’s strategy. In one game, he was on the court for only four seconds.
Oklahoma City Thunder in 2023
The Oklahoma City Thunder came under scrutiny in 2023, as they benched several players during the most challenging part of the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey were instrumental to the team, but they didn’t get to play despite being listed as healthy.
The move was especially noticed when it came to betting on the game against the Phoenix Suns. It led to a flurry of last-minute bets when it became obvious that the Suns really had a chance to beat the spread without the full Thunder roster.
Los Angeles Clippers and the Kawhi/PG13 Rest Saga in 2022-2023
The Clippers became synonymous with load management during the 2022-23 season. This was most noticeable with their superstars – Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Both players set out for one of the back-to-back games even though there was no medical reason for it.
In a particularly interesting game against the Milwaukee Bucks, the team announced that both players would be benched just an hour before the game. Bettors saw it as an opportunity, and sportsbooks adjusted their odds immediately to reflect the decision.
What Metrics Are Most Affected by the Lack of Rest?
Overbearing schedules won’t only affect who wins the game, but they can also impact numerous additional parlay bets, as fatigue affects each player differently and particularly affects the team dynamic.
Field Goal and Three-Point Percentage
Field goal and three-point percentage drops when players are tired, as they can shoot far less efficiently. They both take fewer shots and miss more of them as the game draws to a close, especially if it goes into overtime. Many bettors make an over/under bet on this statistic and make plans accordingly.
Turnovers
Turnovers are a statistic affected by fatigue, but it sometimes takes a while, even for the best players to notice. Ball-dominant guards and primary playmakers tend to start making mistakes with their passes as they get tired. It leads to more transition scoring and a faster game pace.
Rebounds
Defensive rebounds, in particular, are significantly affected by fatigue in the players. Rebounds depend on the players’ height and position, but they also depend on timing and the ability to stay focused, both of which are lessened by fatigue. When it comes to betting, under bets are always a good option for the team that’s playing back-to-back games.
To Sum Up
Rest is an essential tool that NBA teams have in dealing with the overwhelming schedule their players follow. It has been proven that teams and players with a more demanding schedule tend to perform worse in measurable achievements.
Many NBA teams have attempted to bench players for less important games in an effort to mitigate this. Bettors who are aware of these trends can model their bets based on them, and many have achieved great results. The sports betting sites also adjust their odds to reflect that a player or a team is overworked.
