Padres vs Giants Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [6/21/18]

San Diego (34-42) at San Francisco (37-38)
When: Thursday, June 21st 2018
Where: AT&T Park, San Francisco
Time: 10:15 ET | TV: FS San Diego, NBCS Bay Area
Opening Odds: San Francisco -175/7 


With the National League Central being such a tight-mess this season, every series is that much more important with the All-Star Break coming up in less than a month. Yes, even the San Diego Padres are in the race despite being in last place. They will open a four-game series at AT&T Park on Thursday against the San Francisco Giants as Tyson Ross opposes Madison Bumgarner. The Padres are in the middle of playing 17 of 19 away from Petco Park and were swept in a two-game interleague series by visiting Oakland this week, but are only 7.5 games behind first place Arizona. The offense, which has scored seven runs during a four-game losing streak, could get a boost with the return of Wil Myers from the disabled list, but he is only 5-for-35 in his career against Bumgarner. San Francisco’s ace is seeking his first win in what will be his fourth start this season after missing more than two months due to a broken pinkie suffered in spring training. Bumgarner has not beaten San Diego since May 17th, 2016, going 0-4 in his last six starts against them. Gorkys Hernandez was 4-for-8 with a homer and five RBIs as the Giants won the last two against Miami to win the opening series on their 10-game homestand after blowing Monday’s game in the ninth inning.

Pitchers: Padres – Tyson Ross (5-4, 3.51 ERA) | Giants – Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 4.67)

Ross has pretty solid numbers on the season and had a six-start unbeaten streak end at Atlanta last Friday despite giving up three runs on only three hits over six innings. It was the seventh straight start in which Ross allowed three earned runs or less. He pitched six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision at San Francisco on May 1st and six innings of one-run ball to beat the Giants on April 13th.


Bumgarner struggled in his latest start, allowing three runs on five hits while walking four and surrendering two homers in a 3-1 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bumgarner has made 30 career starts against the Padres, tying Arizona for the most against any opponent, and is 10-9 with a 3.46 ERA overall.

It may take some more time for Bumgarner to get back to his dominant self, if he even does. The Padres are 4-3 against the Giants this season and have won both that Ross has started. I’ll take that trend.

Pick: Padres +135

https://youtu.be/E2ul8L2euYU


BETTING TRENDS:

  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Padres are 17-36 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Padres are 16-35 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series.
  • Padres are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
  • Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 Thursday games.
  • Padres are 6-0 in Ross’ last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Padres are 6-1 in Ross’ last 7 starts.
  • Padres are 6-1 in Ross’ last 7 starts on grass.
  • Padres are 5-1 in Ross’ last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Padres are 4-1 in Ross’ last 5 road starts.
  • Padres are 4-1 in Ross’ last 5 starts vs. National League West.
  • Padres are 2-5 in Ross’ last 7 Thursday starts.
  • Padres are 1-5 in Ross’ last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Giants are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Giants are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
  • Giants are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Giants are 6-13 in their last 19 Thursday games.
  • Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
  • Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Giants are 5-16 in Bumgarner’s last 21 starts vs. National League West.
  • Giants are 5-16 in Bumgarner’s last 21 starts.
  • Giants are 5-16 in Bumgarner’s last 21 starts on grass.
  • Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Giants are 1-7 in Bumgarner’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Giants are 0-4 in Bumgarner’s last 4 home starts.
  • Under is 7-1 in Padres last 8 overall.
  • Under is 7-1 in Padres last 8 road games.
  • Under is 7-1 in Padres last 8 on grass.
  • Under is 9-2 in Padres last 11 Thursday games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Over is 6-2 in Padres last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Under is 6-2 in Padres last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Padres last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Ross’ last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Ross’ last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Ross’ last 4 starts vs. National League West.
  • Under is 7-1 in Ross’ last 8 road starts.
  • Under is 6-2-1 in Ross’ last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Under is 5-2 in Ross’ last 7 Thursday starts.
  • Under is 9-4 in Ross’ last 13 starts on grass.
  • Under is 9-4 in Ross’ last 13 starts overall.
  • Under is 33-16-2 in Ross’ last 51 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 Thursday games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League West.
  • Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Over is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-0 in Bumgarner’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Bumgarner’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Under is 9-1-1 in Bumgarner’s last 11 starts vs. National League West.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bumgarner’s last 6 home starts.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Bumgarner’s last 6 starts on grass.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Bumgarner’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Bumgarner’s last 6 starts overall.
  • Over is 3-1-2 in Bumgarner’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Ross’ last 4 starts vs. Giants.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Giants are 10-4 in Bumgarner’s last 14 home starts vs. Padres.
  • Padres are 5-2 in Ross’ last 7 starts vs. Giants.
  • Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner’s last 6 starts vs. Padres.

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