Oklahoma State vs Oregon State Preview & Free Pick [8/30/2019]

Oklahoma St (0-0) at Oregon St (0-0)
When: Friday, August 30, 2019
Where: Reser Stadium,
Corvallis, Oregon
Time: 10:30 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Oklahoma State -17/73.5

Two Power 5 schools with really nothing in common except the color of their uniforms will meet for the first time on Friday night as the Oklahoma State Cowboys visit the Oregon State Beavers in the 2019 season opener for both teams. The Cowboys, led by 15th-year head coach Mike Gundy, have been a very solid football team over the last several years, but can never get over the hump and into elite status. Oklahoma State had three straight seasons of 10 wins before falling to 7-6 a year ago because of a very poor defense. They started out 4-1 last season, but didn’t win a road game the rest of the way until a 38-33 victory over Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. The Cowboys are predicted to finish fifth in the preseason Big 12 poll and still haven’t name a starting quarterback for Week 1. The Beavers have been languishing at the bottom of the Pac-12 Conference for years and the future doesn’t look any better. Oregon State has won just nine games total over the last four seasons and haven’t been to a Bowl game since 2013. They have just one win over an FBS opponent (Colorado) in the last two seasons and are led by head coach Jonathan Smith – the school’s third all-time leading passer (1998-01). Oregon State was second-to-last among FBS teams in scoring defense (45.7 points), total defense (536.8 yards) and rushing defense (281.8) in 2018 and are once again picked last in the conference this season.

Gundy has yet to make a decision on either Dru Brown or Spencer Sanders to start on Friday as both have performed well in practice Brown, a graduate transfer from Hawaii, completed 62 percent of his passes with 37 touchdowns against 15 interceptions in 2016 and 2017 with the Rainbow Warriors. Sanders is a redshirt freshman with speed and a big arm who also sat out last season. The Cowboys will have running back Chuba Hubbard (740 yards, seven touchdowns) – the top returning rusher – back this season after losing Justice Hill (971 yards). Junior wide receiver and AP preseason All-American Tylan Wallace is coming off a monster season, catching 86 passes for 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns and will lead an always talented receiving corps. Senior A.J. Green and junior Rodarius Williams are a pair of cornerbacks that return to help the Cowboys improve on their 32.5 points allowed per game a season ago.

Jake Luton – a sixth year starting quarterback – won the starting job over sophomore Tristan Gebbia, but didn’t put up big numbers in 2018. He threw for just 1,660 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions after missing the final eight games in 2017 with a back injury. Beavers senior wide receiver Trevon Bradford, who caught 56 passes for 649 yards and a team-high six touchdowns last season, will not play because of a foot injury, but will have junior wideout Isaiah Hodgins (team highs of 59 catches and 876 yards with five touchdowns) ready to go. The Beavers also return their leading rusher in Jermar Jefferson, who ran for 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns last season as a freshman. Leading tackler (102) and senior Jalen Moore is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Friday.

Oregon State returns a lot of guys, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be any better. They should be more competitive and if Luton is healthy, could surprise a few teams. I’m taking the points here because the Cowboys seem to play down to their competition. They lost five games last year as a favorite to unranked teams. Jefferson should be able to run against an Oklahoma State defense that surrendered 185 yards a game on the ground last season.

Pick: Oregon State +14

Betting Trends:

Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.

Beavers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.
Beavers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in August.

Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 Friday games.
Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 road games.
Over is 25-11 in Cowboys last 36 games on fieldturf.
Over is 13-6 in Cowboys last 19 games overall.

Over is 7-0 in Beavers last 7 non-conference games.
Over is 12-3-1 in Beavers last 16 games overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in Beavers last 5 home games.
Over is 3-1-1 in Beavers last 5 Friday games.
Over is 8-3-1 in Beavers last 12 games on fieldturf.