NFL Draft Prop Bets: First Round Quarterbacks

NFL prop bets are up all over the internet and this week we are going to be taking a look at quite a few of them. Today, we are going to be taking a look at quarterbacks. The number currently set at  is 4 at Realbookies with the over being (-160) and the under at (+120). Of course, they always pick the perfect number but let’s take a look at where you should end up on this wager.

Teams in Need

Through the process of elimination, we can narrow down the field of teams that actually need a starting quarterback. Joe Burrow is going to go to the Cincinnati Bengals with the number 1 overall selection. That is a forgone conclusion as Burrow is one of the best quarterback prospects to come out of school since Andrew Luck. While that statement could be seen as inflammatory, I firmly believe it.

Seven of the next nine selections will not be quarterbacks. The Dolphins at number five and the Chargers at number six are the most likely to select quarterbacks. The Redskins drafted Dwayne Haskins a year ago, the same with the Giants and Daniel Jones and the Cardinals with Kyler Murray.

It has been no secret that the Dolphins have coveted Alabama Tua Tagovailoa ever since someone thought to coin the phrase “Tanking for Tua”. Of course, given the current situation we find ourselves in with the coronavirus, it has made it difficult for the Dolphins to evaluate the young phenom’s current health. Rest assured, Tua’s agent says he is completely healthy. I don’t know about you but I feel better about it now.

The Chargers at #6 are interesting as Oregon QB Justin Hebert will most certainly still be available. Los Angeles moved on from Phillip Rivers this offseason and Tyrod Taylor is currently the top quarterback on the depth chart while Cam Newton and Jameis Winston remain available on the free-agent market. I would not say that the Chargers are a foregone conclusion to draft Hebert as they need help all over, specifically on the offensive line where some high-end options will be available to them at the sixth pick and other quarterbacks who are talented will be available later in the draft.

After the Chargers’ selection, the next likely team to take a quarterback is the Patriots at #23 but I would not rule out the Broncos taking a leap at #15 if Hebert falls to them as I am not sure anyone is completely sold on Drew Lock. Also, while Tampa Bay has found their immediate solution in Tom Brady, the man is also 43 years old. They will have to address that situation at some point, will it be in the first round this year? I doubt it.

At #23, the Patriots will have something to think about as Jordan Love of Utah State, Jacob Eason of Washington, and Jake Fromm of Georgia will all almost certainly be available. Since the Patriots don’t select again until #87, they will have to make their quarterback decision at #23 because all three will be gone when they are on the clock again.

There are a couple of things to consider, the Patriots have serious needs elsewhere, specifically in their front seven and could be ready to give Jarrett Stidham an opportunity given their success giving quarterbacks chances in the past under Belichick. Under Belichick, the Patriots have traded out of the first round four times and did not have a first-round selection in 2016. It is not outside the realm of possibilities that the Patriots move out of the first and take one of the three quarterbacks mentioned above in the second if they are able to get the correct deal.


I think there are going to be three quarterbacks taken in the first round. If Hebert falls past Los Angeles someone will trade up to grab him. I am betting the under and avoiding the juice.  Take the under at our favorite pay per head bookie site