Louisville vs Kentucky Trends and Free Pick [3/31/12]

Louisville (30-9) vs Kentucky (36-2)
When: Saturday, March 31st, 2012
Where: Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Time: 6:05 ET

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The point spread for Saturday’s Final Four battle between the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats opened up at -9 in favor of the Wildcats at Sportsbook on Sunday afternoon and the total was set at 138. As of Wednesday night the line has been bet down to -8.5 and the total is down to 137. So far, 52% of the betting public is on Kentucky and 51% are on the under. Here are the latest trends for this game:

Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.

Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.

Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.

Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 neutral site games.

Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 non-conference games.

Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 NCAA Tournament games.

Over is 5-1-1 in Wildcats last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.

Under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.

Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

My Prediction: More than bragging rights are at stake in this Louisville/Kentucky battle. This is the first time two teams from the same state have played each other in a Final Four game in 50 years. That’s hard to believe. Kentucky obviously is the big favorite, but coach John Calipari is still looking for his first National Championship. As long as he doesn’t coach tight, his players will be fine. Kentucky should and will win this game. Can Louisville do enough to keep it close? Since the start of the Big East Tournament, the Cardinals have not only won every game to this point, they have also covered all eight. Kentucky hasn’t been very good this season ATS, so I will stick to that trend and take Louisville plus the points.

Louisville +8.5

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