Lions vs Packers NFL Preview & Free Pick [9/28/2023]

Detroit (2-1) at Green Bay (2-1)
When: Thursday, September 28th, 2023
Where: Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI

Time: 8:15 ET | TV: Prime
Opening Odds: Green Bay -1/46

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First place in the NFC North is on the line this Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The series has been one-sided for years, but the Lions were able to win at Green Bay in Week 18 last season, ending the Packers playoff hopes and sending Aaron Rodgers to New York. Even with that victory, Detroit is just 4-28 in their last 32 visits to Wisconsin. These teams will also meet in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

The Packers improved to 2-1 last week with an 18-17 win over New Orleans. The Saints led 17-0 entering the fourth quarter before Jordan Love rallied his team in his first home start. The rushing attack for the Packers averages just 3.4 yards a carry so far – good for 26th in the league. Injuries to the line and starting running back Aaron Jones have been the main issue. Jones is probable for Thursday, as is wide receiver Christian Watson, who hasn’t played this season after recording seven touchdowns as a rookie.

The Lions defense rebounded from a 37-31 home loss to Seattle in Week 2 by defeating the Atlanta Falcons 20-6 last Sunday. Lions left tackle Taylor Decker has missed the last two games with a high-ankle sprain but plans on playing Thursday. If Decker plays, right tackle Penei Sewell can slide back to his usual position. The Lions are 1.5-point road favorites with total of 46.

Detroit played last week without No. 1 running back David Montgomery, two starting offensive linemen and two starters in the secondary. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs had 80 yards on 16 carries, but Montgomery is expected back this week. Jared Goff was 22-of-33 for 243 yards, a touchdown and a pick.

Rookie Sam LaPorta became the first tight end to catch five or more balls in each of his first three career games, recording a season-high eight receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. The defense held the Falcons to 44 yards rushing, 126.5 yards below average. Detroit also recorded seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss. pressures in 20 pass-rush opportunities.

Detroit Lions Injury Report [Week 4]

David MontgomeryRBProb Thurs - Thigh - 9/26/23
Jason CabindaFBQues Thurs - Knee - 9/25/23
Jonah JacksonGQues Thurs - Thigh - 9/25/23
Matt NelsonOTQues Thurs - Ankle - 9/24/23
Kerby JosephSQues Thurs - Hip - 9/24/23
Halapoulivaati VaitaiGQues Thurs - Knee - 9/24/23
Taylor DeckerOTQues Thurs - Ankle - 9/24/23
Emmanuel MoseleyCBQues Thurs - Knee - 9/24/23
Jameson WilliamsWRElig Week 7 - Suspension - 4/22/23
James HoustonLBMid Nov - Ankle - 9/19/23
Josh PaschalDLOut indefinitely - Knee - 9/16/23
Khalil DorseyCBOut indefinitely - Illness - 9/16/23
Julian OkwaraLBOut indefinitely - Knee - 8/31/23
Nate SudfeldQBI-R - Knee - 8/29/23
Shane ZylstraTEI-R - Knee - 8/11/23
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonDBI-R - Pectoral - 9/19/23
Hendon HookerQBOut indefinitely - Knee - 7/20/23

Love hit Romeo Doubs on an 8-yard TD pass with 2:56 left to secure the comeback win over the Saints last week at home. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr left the game and didn’t return. Also, rookie kicker Blake Grupe missed a field goal wide right from 46 yards out with 1:05 left. Green Bay has now won 11 straight home openers, the NFL’s longest active streak.

The Green Bay defense ranks 10th against the pass (199.7), but 28th versus the run (136.7). The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight Week 4 contests.

Green Bay Packers Injury Report [Week 4]

Aaron JonesRBProb Thurs - Hamstring - 9/27/23
Christian WatsonWRProb Thurs - Hamstring - 9/27/23
Zach TomOLQues Thurs - Knee - 9/26/23
De'Vondre CampbellLBQues Thurs - Ankle - 9/24/23
Carrington ValentineCBQues Thurs - Bicep - 9/24/23
Jaire AlexanderCBQues Thurs - Back - 9/24/23
Zayne AndersonSQues Thurs - Hamstring - 9/24/23
David BakhtiariOTQues Thurs - Knee - 9/24/23
Elgton JenkinsGQues Thurs - Knee - 9/24/23
Anthony Johnson Jr.SQues Thurs - Knee - 9/24/23
Luke TenutaOTOut indefinitely - Ankle - 8/31/23
Tyler DavisTEI-R - Knee - 8/21/23
Eric StokesCBOut indefinitely - Foot - 8/29/23

The Packers are no longer dominating this series, with Detroit winning each of the last three. The Lions are a solid team and should win the division this year. If Detroit can win a prime time game at Kansas City (Week 1), they can surely beat Jordan Love and the Packers.

Week 4 Staff Selections

Pick: Lions -1.5