Kentucky vs Mississippi State Preview & Free Pick [2/27/24]

Kentucky (19-8) at Mississippi State (19-8)
When: Tuesday, February 27th, 2024
Where: Humphrey Coliseum,
Starkville, MS

Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Mississippi State -1.5/157

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For just the sixth time this season, the Kentucky Wildcats will come into a game as an underdog when they visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Tuesday night in Starkville. Kentucky has fared well in the first five as a dog, winning three of them and covering the spread in four out of the five. The Wildcats will come into this game as a 2.5-point underdog after an impressive 117-95 home win over then-No. 13 Alabama on Saturday. They have now won three of four, as Kentucky gets ready for a deep run into March.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs come in red-hot, winning five in a row after an 87-67 road win at LSU as a 4.5-point favorite. Mississippi State is currently projected for the dreaded 8-9 game in the NCAA Tournament. As you know, the winner of that game goes on to play the No. 1 seed, barring a monumental upset in Round 1. So a win over Kentucky and a strong finish over the next two weeks could help improve the Bulldogs’ seeding for the Big Dance.

To nobody’s surprise, the Wildcats have dominated the series, winning 18 of the last 19 meetings including a 90-77 home win over the Bulldogs on Jan. 17. Kentucky shot 55.6 percent in that game and Antonio Reeves led the way with 27 points. The Bulldogs shot 44.9 percent and only went to the free throw line 10 times, as compared to Kentucky’s 27 attempts. Tolu Smith led the Bulldogs with 27 points in just 26 minutes of action.


Over is 9-3 in Kentucky’s last 12 Tue. games.
Over is 36-15 in Kentucky’s last 51 overall.
Wildcats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings.


Justin Edwards broke out in a big way on Saturday, scoring a season-best 28 points on a perfect 10-of-10 shooting. The freshman started the season out strong with double-figures in seven non-conference tilts, but the scoring totals declined rapidly once SEC play began. Edwards’ previous high was 17 points against Vanderbilt on Feb. 6. Reeves added 24 points as Kentucky shot 63.1 percent from the field, including 13-of-24 from beyond the arc. Reeves leads the team with a 19.0 scoring average and 70 3-point baskets. The Wildcats will host Arkansas on Saturday.


The Bulldogs boast the longest current winning streak in the SEC with five and are 11-2 at home this season. Freshman guard Josh Hubbard poured in a season-high 32 points in Saturday’s road rout of LSU. Hubbard nailed 6-of-12 three-point attempts and all eight of his free throws. Hubbard ranks second on the Bulldogs in scoring at 15.3 points, trailing Smith, who averages 16.8 points and a team-high 8.1 rebounds. Mississippi State will play at Auburn on Saturday.


I’m going to back the Bulldogs in this one. Kentucky has all the talent in the world but they can struggle at times. Mississippi State is playing terrific defense lately and are fifth in the country at 3-point defense. Also, we’ve seen it numerous times, where an unranked team is favored over a ranked team. In most cases, the unranked team comes out on top.

Pick: Mississippi State -2.5

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