Duke (17-6) at Miami FL (18-5)
When: Monday, February 6th 2023
Where: Watsco Center,
Coral Gables, FL
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Miami FL -2/146
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Big Monday gets underway in South Florida this week, as the Miami Hurricanes host the Duke Blue Devils in a key ACC matchup. The top four teams in the conference earn a bye into the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, and these two teams are right on the line. Miami sits in a tie for fourth place with North Carolina State, while the Blue Devils are just a half-game back in sixth. A win by Duke would put them past the Hurricanes.
These teams met a few weeks ago in Durham and the Blue Devils pulled out a 68-66 win, but the Hurricanes got the cover (+6). Neither team shot very well. Duke was held to 40.3 percent from the floor, while Miami shot a dismal 34.9 percent. The Hurricanes have covered each of the last four meetings, while the total is 2-2 in that span.
Duke is coming off an emotional 63-57 win at home over rival North Carolina to improve to a perfect 12-0 at home. That is now three wins in a row for the Blue Devils after dropping two of three. Duke is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Miami, which is also 12-0 at home, earned a tough 78-74 road win at Clemson on Saturday as 1.5-point underdogs. The ‘Canes are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall.
Duke won the rebounding edge 46-40 in their win over North Carolina on Saturday night. The big difference came at the foul line where Duke was 11-of-15, while the Tar Heels shot just three foul shots and made two. Jeremy Roach was the only player to go all 40 minutes and led the Blue Devils with 20 points on 8-of-20 from the field. Kyle Filipowski recorded 14 points and seven boards, while Dereck Lively II led all players with 14 rebounds – five of them offensive. Duke will travel to Virginia on Saturday.
Duke will have a size advantage over the smallish Hurricanes, but that didn’t prevent Miami from dominating the boards on Saturday. The ‘Canes outrebounded Clemson 38-28 for their 25th consecutive victory when outrebounding their opponent. Miami outscored the Tigers 17-8 at the foul line and were led by five players in double-figures. Nijel Pack led the way with 20 points on 6-of-14 shooting and a perfect 6-of-6 from the foul line. Miami will host 1-11 Louisville on Saturday.
Duke has been a horrible cover team this year and recently. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning record. Miami is a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season and are on a 20-8-1 ATS run against teams with at least a .600 winning percentage. I’ll take the ‘Canes.
Pick: Miami -3