Dallas (3-0) at New Orleans (2-1)
When: Sunday, September 29, 2019
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, LA
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Dallas -2.5/45
The Seattle Seahawks were 15-0 at home in the month of September under head coach Pete Carroll, so when New Orleans rolled into town without their future Hall of Fame quarterback, nobody gave them a chance. Well, backup Teddy Bridgewater along with strong defense and special teams helped the Saints end that streak in a huge win going into their Week 4 matchup with the undefeated Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. This could be an NFC Championship Game preview as both teams won their respective divisions last year and of course the Saints reached the NFC title game but lost in controversial fashion to the Los Angeles Rams. New Orleans’ task is a lot tougher now after losing quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2. Brees out anywhere from 6-8 weeks and the Saints hope to still be in good shape by the time he returns. The Cowboys have benefited from a soft schedule against three of some of the worst teams in the league, but will have a tough road task in the Bayou. These teams met in Week 13 last year when the Saints were on a 10-game winning streak but were upset 13-10 in Dallas. The Saints had just 176 yards and were shut out in the first half. The only touchdown was a Zeke Elliott 16-yard reception from Dak Prescott late in the first quarter. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its past six trips to the Superdome and the teams have split the past four meetings, with the home team prevailing in each.
The Cowboys already lead the NFC East by 1.5 games over Philadelphia, as those two teams are poised to battle it out til the end. Dallas is coming off an easy 31-6 win over tanking Miami, as Dak Prescott threw for 246 yard and two scores while running for another TD, and both Elliott (125 yards) and rookie Tony Pollard (103) rushed for at least 100 yards. Amari Cooper caught both of Prescott’s TD throws, while fellow wideout Michael Gallup missed the game with a meniscus injury and is out at least one more week. Dallas’ pass rush came after the Dolphins all day and recorded three sacks. The Cowboys, who will host Green Bay next week, are 7-3 ATS in its past 10 after a win.
Alvin Kamara will need to take on a big role at running back to take pressure off Bridgewater and rumbled for 69 yards and a score and caught nine passes for 92 yards and another touchdown. Receiver Tre’Quan Smith missed the game with an ankle injury and has been ruled out for Sunday as well. Bridgewater threw for 177 yards with a pair of touchdowns but more importantly, did not turn the ball over. Michael Thomas has 25 receptions and scored his first touchdown last week while the defense yielded at least 27 points for the third straight week. The Saints, who are 0-6 ATS in their past six after a win, will host Tampa Bay next week.
I’ve always like Bridgewater and I think he can keep this team going – along with Kamara – until Brees gets back. Dallas hasn’t proven anything yet with their soft schedule and won’t be ready for this raucous road environment.
Pick: Saints +2.5 (More Week 4 Free Picks)
Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Cowboys are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cowboys are 6-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
Saints are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Saints are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win.
Saints are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Saints are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 vs. NFC.
Over is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games in Week 4.
Under is 25-10 in Cowboys last 35 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-1 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Saints last 10 vs. NFC.
Over is 10-3-1 in Saints last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games following a straight up win.
Over is 19-7 in Saints last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Saints last 11 games in September.
Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 9-4 in Saints last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New Orleans.
