Cincinnati vs SMU Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick – [2/11/18]

Cincinnati (22-2, 11-0) at SMU (15-9, 5-6)
When: Sunday, February 11th 2018
Where: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX
Time: 4:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Cincinnati -7

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The Cincinnati Bearcats have dominated the American Athletic Conference all season and are very close to wrapping things up, but they still can’t be caught looking ahead to next week’s key matchups with the second-place teams. Cincinnati holds a three-game lead in the AAC with seven to play and will visit the injury-plagued SMU Mustangs on Sunday afternoon on ESPN. Cincinnati, who shared their only conference crown with Louisville back in 2014, plays the two teams tied for second place – at Houston and home vs. Wichita State – Thursday and Sunday later this week, but they must get by an SMU team that has lost three of its last four but is 13-1 at Moody Coliseum this season and 81-5 there since the 2013-14 season. The Mustangs are down to just seven available scholarship players with junior guard Jarrey Foster (knee), who is second in scoring (13.2 points per game), and freshman forward Everett Ray (foot) both sidelined with season-ending injuries. Junior guard Shake Milton, the preseason AAC player of the year, is questionable with a left-hand injury that has forced him to miss the last two games. Jacob Evans had 18 points to lead host Cincinnati to an easy 76-56 victory in the first meeting on January 7th, but SMU has won the last two meetings in Dallas.

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This Cincinnati team is not an offensive fire-power, but that’s fine when you play the best defense in the country. The Bearcats rank second in scoring defense (56.1) and first in field-goal percentage defense (36.3) and have held three of their last five opponents to 48 points or fewer. Only Virginia, who will probably be the new No. 1 in the country, can compare defensively. The offense averages 77 points per game and features four players averaging in double figures led by Evans (13.7), who is shooting 41.1% from 3-point range, and senior forward Gary Clark (12.9), who also leads the team in rebounding (8.9). Senior forward Kyle Washington (11.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 42.4% 3-pointers) and reigning AAC co-Sixth Man of the Year Jarron Cumberland (10.7) also are averaging in double digits.

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Milton is one of 13 players in the country averaging 18 points, four rebounds and four assists per games, and his return to the lineup is not very encouraging. “It really is day-to-day, but it could be a week and a half,” coach Tim Jankovich told 247Sports.com. With Milton and Foster out, junior guard Jahmal McMurray, who is third in scoring (12.1) and shooting 43.2% from 3-point range, has upped his performance to 19.7 points over the last three games while three other Mustangs also average in double-figures – Ben Emelogu II (10.7 points), Ethan Chargois (10.3) and Jimmy Whitt (10.3).

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Cincinnati’s defense is just too good for a short-handed SMU team to handle. Yes, the Mustangs are very good at home, but the Bearcats will be focused and ready to go.

Pick: Cincinnati -8

• Bearcats are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. American Athletic Conference.
• Bearcats are 18-39 ATS in their last 57 Sunday games.
• Bearcats are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
• Bearcats are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Bearcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

• Mustangs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games.
• Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• Mustangs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Mustangs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home games.
• Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. American Athletic Conference.
• Mustangs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Mustangs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

• Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 vs. American Athletic Conference.
• Under is 42-11-1 in Bearcats last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 49-15-1 in Bearcats last 65 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 38-12-1 in Bearcats last 51 road games.
• Under is 19-7-1 in Bearcats last 27 Sunday games.
• Under is 20-8 in Bearcats last 28 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
• Under is 7-3-1 in Bearcats last 11 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 67-32-1 in Bearcats last 100 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

• Under is 8-1-1 in Mustangs last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Mustangs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 4-1 in Mustangs last 5 home games.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Mustangs last 5 Sunday games.

• Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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