Chiefs vs Ravens NFL Free Pick & Prediction [1/28/2024]

Kansas City (13-6) at Baltimore (14-4)
When: Sunday, January 28th, 2024
Where: M&T Bank Stadium,
Baltimore, MD

Time: 3:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Baltimore -2.5/50

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The conference championships are set and first up is the AFC where the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The Chiefs are in the AFC Championship game for the sixth year in a row and are looking to be the first repeat Super Bowl champs since the New England Patriots did it following the 2004 season. It’s been a different path this postseason for Kansas City, who had to beat Miami 26-7 in the wild card round before going on the road and eliminating the Buffalo Bills 27-24.

Baltimore hasn’t been to the Super Bowl since after the 2012 campaign, well before Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. Jackson is set to win his second NFL MVP Award when its announced the weekend of Super Bowl 58. The Ravens earned the AFC’s top seed after a 13-4 regular season and easily took care of the Houston Texans 34-10 in last weekend’s Divisional Round. Baltimore led the NFL in scoring defense (16.5 points per game) and was sixth in total defense (301.4 yards per game).

The Chiefs are 7-5 all-time vs. the Ravens including one playoff meeting back on Jan. 9, 2011. In that game, the Ravens won 30-7 at home in the Wild Card round. The last regular-season matchup in 2021 and the Ravens won 36-35 at home behind a passing TD and 107 yards and two rushing scores from Jackson. Mahomes, who is 3-1 versus Jackson, had 343 yards passing and three touchdowns. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in this contest with a total of 44.5.

The Chiefs have won at least two playoff games in five straight seasons and Mahomes is 13-3 as a playoff starter. The win against the Bills marked Mahomes’ first postseason road start and No. 2 is coming up on Sunday. Mahomes stats dropped this season to 4,183 passing yards, 27 touchdown passes and a career-worst 14 interceptions. Last week, he threw for 215 yards and two scores to Travis Kelce. The Kansas City defense has done a great job this season, giving up less than 28 points in every game. They are the fifth team in NFL history to do so in 19 games including playoffs.

Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney injured his pectoral muscle and is questionable for the AFC title game. Thuney and the rest of the offensive line didn’t allow Mahomes to get sacked last week in Buffalo. Also missing practice for the Chiefs were safety Mike Edwards (concussion), nose tackle Derrick Nnadi (triceps), receiver Skyy Moore (knee) and guard Trey Smith (illness).

Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report [AFC Champ]

Wanya MorrisOLProb Sun - Concussion - 1/24/24
Kadarius ToneyWRProb Sun - Hip - 1/24/24
Isiah PachecoRBQues Sun - Ankle - 1/24/24
Trey SmithGQues Sun - Illness - 1/24/24
Blaine GabbertQBQues Sun - Oblique - 1/24/24
L'Jarius SneedCBQues Sun - Calf - 1/24/24
Joe ThuneyGQues Sun - Pectoral - 1/22/24
Mike EdwardsSQues Sun - Concussion - 1/22/24
Willie GayLBQues Sun - Neck - 1/22/24
Derrick NnadiDTQues Sun - Tricep - 1/22/24
Nikko RemigioWROut indefinitely - Foot - 1/7/24
BJ ThompsonDEOut indefinitely - Hamstring - 10/8/23
Cam JonesLBI-R - Chest - 1/17/24
Jerick McKinnonRBOut indefinitely - Groin - 12/24/23
Skyy MooreWRQues Sun - Knee - 1/22/24
Bryan CookSOut indefinitely - Ankle - 12/24/23
Prince Tega WanoghoOTQues Sun - Quadricep - 1/24/24
Jody FortsonTEI-R - Shoulder - 8/15/23
Nazeeh JohnsonSI-R - Knee - 8/3/23

Jackson passed for a career-high 3,678 yards in the regular season while throwing 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 821 rushing yards. Jackson came into last week’s game 0-2 in home playoff games, but was solid in the win over Houston with two TD passes, two rushing scores and 100 yards on the ground.

The Ravens in the regular season were the first team in NFL history to lead or co-lead the NFL in scoring defense, sacks and takeaways. They held the CJ Stroud and the Texans to just 213 yards and zero offensive touchdowns last week. Tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) and cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) were on the practice field this week and hope to play on Sunday. Andrews practiced in full after missing the past seven games since being injured on Nov. 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Baltimore Ravens Injury Report [AFC Champ]

Rock Ya-SinCBQues Sun - Knee - 1/24/24
Del'Shawn PhillipsLBQues Sun - Shoulder - 1/22/24
Tylan WallaceWRQues Sun - Knee - 1/22/24
Marlon HumphreyCBQues Sun - Calf - 1/22/24
Damarion WilliamsCBI-R - Undisclosed - 1/15/24
Daryl WorleyCBI-R - Head - 1/5/24
Jalyn Armour-DavisCBI-R - Concussion - 12/30/23
Keaton MitchellRBI-R - Knee - 12/20/23
Mark AndrewsTEQues Sun - Ankle - 1/22/24
David OjaboLBOut indefinitely - Ankle - 9/30/23
J.K. DobbinsRBI-R - Achilles - 9/12/23
Malik HammLBI-R - Lower Body - 12/25/23
Trayvon MullenCBOut indefinitely - Toe - 8/4/23
Tyus BowserLBOut indefinitely - Knee - 8/4/23
Andrew VorheesOLOut indefinitely - Knee - 7/21/23

The Ravens are on a roll right now offensively and defensively. Mahomes is always a threat but this is not the same Kansas City offense we’ve seen in the past years. Mahomes is going to struggle against the best defense in the league and I think Jackson runs and passes the Ravens to the Super Bowl.

Conference Championship Staff Selections

Pick: Ravens -3.5