Kansas City (8-4) at New England (10-2)
When: Sunday, December 8th, 2019
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -4/50.5
The Buffalo Bills are breathing down New England’s necks in the AFC East, but the Patriots get to play three of their final four games at Gillette Stadium. Why is that significant? Well, they’ve won 18 in a row there and will host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon with a chance to clinch a playoff spot. The Patriots saw their division lead chopped to one game following a 29-22 setback at Houston last week and their lone remaining road game is at 1-11 Cincinnati. The Chiefs could wrap-up the AFC West this weekend with a win and Raiders loss and still have an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City has rebounded from a loss at Tennessee with a couple of division wins over the L.A. Chargers and Raiders the last two games. New England comes into this contest with the smallest home spread it has seen since Oct. 22, 2017, when it prevailed 23-7 over visiting Atlanta at -2.5. Dating back to that cover, the Patriots have gone an incredible 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games, but one of those non-covers came in a 43-40 win over the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites in 2018. The Over has cashed in 12 of the Chiefs’ previous 16 games away from Arrowhead Stadium, while New England is 17-7 to the Under in its past 24 home contests.
The Chiefs haven’t looked quite right for most of the season, but that all changed in Week 13, as they rode a pair of defensive/special teams touchdowns to a 40-9 rout of Oakland coming out of their bye, matching a season high in points. No Chiefs player has scored more than five touchdowns this season after five players finished with 5+ TDs a season ago. Mahomes threw for a touchdown and ran for another in last week’s win but has failed to pass for more than 182 yards in three of the past four games. He threw for 647 yards and seven scores in two games versus New England last season, but the Patriots’ defense is much stronger this time around. Speedy wideout Tyreek Hill has 14 catches for 275 yards and four TDs in two regular-season matchups versus New England. The Chiefs are 30th against the run, allowing 141.3 yards per game and allow 22.1 points a game. Kansas City will host Denver next Sunday.
Tom Brady has failed to complete more than 56 percent of his pass attempts in four of his previous five games, and has just three multi-touchdown efforts in his past nine starts. New England scored 22 points last week but two of those touchdowns came late in the contest. Julian Edelman remains Brady’s top target with 61 catches over the past eight games, but the running game is ranked 21st in the league with Sony Michel yet to eclipse 100 yards. Fellow running back James White scored twice and had a career-best 177 yards from scrimmage last week. The reason they’re 10-2? Defense. It’s ranked second against the pass (163.5), fifth against the run (94.5), and tops in points allowed (12.1).
With everyone doubting the Patriots lately, this is the week they dominate. They obviously play better at home and this Chiefs’ defense is pretty bad, while their offense hasn’t been up to standards. Look for an easy New England win.
Pick: Patriots -3 (More Week 14 Free Picks)
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Chiefs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Chiefs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 14.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Patriots are 42-18-2 ATS in their last 62 home games.
Patriots are 47-21-1 ATS in their last 69 games following a straight up loss.
Patriots are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 47-22 ATS in their last 69 games overall.
Patriots are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games as a favorite.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 6-1-1 in Chiefs last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 12-3-1 in Chiefs last 16 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in Week 14.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 15-5-1 in Chiefs last 21 games as an underdog.
Over is 12-4 in Chiefs last 16 road games.
Over is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games in December.
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Patriots last 13 games in December.
Under is 16-5 in Patriots last 21 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 12-4 in Patriots last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 17-6 in Patriots last 23 games as a favorite.
Under is 19-7 in Patriots last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 17-7 in Patriots last 24 games overall.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games as a home favorite.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 home games.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.