Kansas City (6-4) vs LA Chargers (4-6)
When: Monday, November 18th, 2019
Where: Estadio Azteca,
Mexico City, Mexico
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Kansas City -3/49
A big AFC West battle will cap-off Week 11 of the NFL schedule this Monday night, as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers from Mexico City. The game will be played at Estadio Azteca where the Chiefs were supposed to play the Rams in Week 11 last year but it was moved to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum because field conditions were so terrible. Soccer games and heavy rains tore up the field, and many players were threatening to boycott the game for health reasons. This will be a Chargers home game and they probably don’t mind playing away from that little soccer stadium they are stuck in outside Los Angeles until their new stadium is ready. Chargers fans are often hugely outnumbered by visiting fans in the temporary home anyway. L.A. really needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive after dropping a 26-24 decision to the Oakland Raiders as one-point favorites on a Thursday night, Nov. 7th game. Kansas City once played a preseason game in Monterrey, Mexico, and this will be the Chiefs’ second-ever regular season international game. They beat the Detroit Lions at Wembley Stadium in London in 2015. Patrick Mahomes returned from a two-game absence due to a dislocated right kneecap, and completed a career-high 36 passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday, but the Chiefs lost a wild game 35-32 at Tennessee. It’s the first of two meetings between these division rivals with Kansas City hosting Los Angeles in Week 17. The teams finished with identical 12-4 records last year and split in the regular season – each winning on the road. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings and the over easily cashed in both games last season.
Kansas City’s defense continues to be a problem, and last week were gashed for 225 yards rushing by the Titans. The unit ranks 31st against the run, are a solid eighth against the pass. Starting guard Martinas Rankin left with a knee injury and is out for the season, but Kansas City is expected to see the returns of key offensive linemen in OTs Eric Fisher (groin) and Cam Erving (ankle) as well as OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle). Tyreek Hill become the first player in franchise history to record at least 140 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games, hauling in a career-best 11 catches for 157 yards against the Titans. Damien Williams had a season-high 24 touches and 109 scrimmage yards (77 rushing, 32 receiving) for an offense that ranks third overall at 404.7 yards a contest. The Chiefs will have a bye week before playing their final five regular season game.
Philip Rivers is likely a future Hall of Famer but he didn’t look like one with three interceptions – one returned for a touchdown – in the critical loss to the Raiders last time out. Two other picks were negated by penalties. Rivers also couldn’t move the ball when the Chargers got the ball at their own 25 with 58 seconds remaining, all three timeouts left and only needing to get into field-goal range. Those interceptions dropped L.A.’s turnover ratio to minus-6, which is tied for the fifth worst in the league. Look for Melvin Gordon to get a bunch of carries against Kansas City’s horrible rush defense. Gordon rushed for a season-high 108 yards and a score last week, giving him five (four rushing, one receiving) scores in his past four games. Defensively, the Chargers ranks sixth overall (318.3) and eighth in points allowed (19.4) led by defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for nine sacks in the last four games. Los Angeles will also go into their bye week and play at Denver on December 1st.
Rivers has been struggling, but he and Gordon should be able to have a field day against this porous Kansas City defense. L.A. plays pretty good defense and that will enable them to keep this close.
Pick: Chargers +4 (More Week 11 Free Picks)
Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC West.
Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 11.
Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 Monday games.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in November.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games on grass.
Under is 17-5 in Chiefs last 22 games in Week 11.
Over is 8-3 in Chiefs last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 35-17 in Chiefs last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games in Week 11.
Under is 7-2 in Chargers last 9 games overall.
Under is 10-3 in Chargers last 13 vs. AFC West.
Under is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Chargers last 7 games in November.
Under is 22-10 in Chargers last 32 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.
Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.