Broncos vs Bills NFL Preview & Free Pick [11/13/2023]

Denver (3-5) at Buffalo (5-4)
When: Monday, November 13th, 2023
Where: Highmark Stadium,
Orchard Park, NY

Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Buffalo -9/46

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The suddenly resurgent Denver Broncos will head East to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Monday Night Football to close out the Week 10 schedule. After starting the season 1-5 including a 70-20 loss at Miami, Denver has won back-to-back games over the Green Bay Packers and AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs. Defense has been the key, allowing just 26 combined points in the two victories. The Broncos are coming off a Bye week and are 7-point underdogs in Monday’s contest with a total of 47.5.

Buffalo meanwhile, has been trading wins and losses since the beginning of October and the offense has slowed down since starting 3-1. The Bills are coming off a 24-18 loss at the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday night and will look to bounce back with another prime time game. Buffalo acquired cornerback Rasul Douglas from Green Bay last week for a 2024 third-round pick. The Bills lost former Pro Bowl corner Tre’Davious White for the season because of a torn right Achilles in Week 4.

The Bills are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with Denver including a 48-19 win at Mile High back in the 2020 season. Josh Allen threw for 359 yards, while Stefon Diggs caught 11 balls for 147 yards. Drew Lock was under center for Denver and he threw for just 132 yards. The Under is 9-0 in Denver’s last nine November games, while the Bills are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 against teams with a losing record.

The Broncos snapped a long 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs in Week 8 and received a much-needed bye last week. Russell Wilson had only 114 yards passing in that game and hasn’t been dazzling this season. However, his 16 touchdown passes rank fifth in the NFL, and he also is fifth in quarterback rating (101.7). Denver has stopped the run much better of late but are still dead-last in that category (154.1). They did force the Chiefs into five turnovers last week, as Patrick Mahomes had his first career game with three picks and no touchdowns.

Denver Broncos Injury Report [Week 10]

Baron BrowningLBProb Mon - Wrist - 11/9/23
Ben PowersGProb Mon - Ankle - 11/9/23
Kareem JacksonSElig Week 11 - Suspension - 11/10/23
Eyioma UwazurikeDLout for season - Suspension - 10/27/23
Brandon JohnsonWROut indefinitely - Hamstring - 10/28/23
Greg DulcichTEOut indefinitely - Hamstring - 10/21/23
Caden SternsSI-R - Knee - 9/13/23
Alex PalczewskiOTOut indefinitely - Hand - 8/31/23
K'Waun WilliamsCBI-R - Ankle - 10/21/23
Jalen VirgilWRI-R - Knee - 8/22/23
Jonas GriffithLBI-R - Knee - 8/3/23
Tim PatrickWRI-R - Achilles - 8/2/23

Buffalo has looked a lot different at home than away from home. The Bills are 1-3 outside of Orchard Park and 4-1 when hosting teams. At home, Allen has 13 TD passes to just three picks with a 117.5 rating compared to on the road where he has five TDs and six picks for a rating of 79.3. The rushing game other than Allen has been non-existent this season and that needs to change in order to keep their franchise QB healthy. Allen is tied for second in the NFL with 18 TD passes but has been intercepted nine times. Cornerback Christian Benford (hamstring) and safeties Jordan Poyer (shin) and Micah Hyde (neck/stinger) missed Thursday’s practice.

Buffalo Bills Injury Report [Week 10]

Stefon DiggsWRProb Mon - Back - 11/11/23
Josh AllenQBProb Mon - Shoulder - 11/11/23
Leonard FloydDEProb Mon - Illness - 11/11/23
Jordan PoyerSProb Mon - Shin - 11/11/23
A.J. KleinLBProb Mon - Back - 11/11/23
Baylon SpectorLBProb Mon - Hamstring - 11/11/23
Terrel BernardLBQues Mon - Concussion - 11/7/23
Damar HamlinSQues Mon - Illness - 11/7/23
Christian BenfordCBOut Mon - Hamstring - 11/11/23
Micah HydeSOut Mon - Neck - 11/11/23
Dawson KnoxTEOut indefinitely - Wrist - 10/26/23
Kaiir ElamCBOut indefinitely - Ankle - 11/2/23
Damien HarrisRBOut indefinitely - Neck - 10/20/23
DaQuan JonesDTI-R - Pectoral - 10/11/23
Matt MilanoLBI-R - Leg - 10/11/23
Tre'Davious WhiteCBI-R - Achilles - 10/7/23
Justin ShorterWROut indefinitely - Hamstring - 8/30/23
Tommy DoyleOTI-R - Knee - 8/22/23
Nyheim HinesRBI-R - Knee - 7/25/23
Zach DavidsonTEI-R - Knee - 8/3/23

I locked into Denver at +7.5 on Thursday and I’ll stick with them at +7. The defense has been outstanding the last two games, especially the secondary. They really can’t stop the run, but Buffalo doesn’t have a running game outside of their quarterback. Criticize Wilson all you want, but he does have a 16/4 TD/INT ratio this year and a 101.7 rating. I can see Wilson and the defense keeping this close.

Week 10 Staff Selections

Pick: Broncos +7