Bills vs Chiefs Preview & Free Pick [October 10th 2021]

Buffalo (3-1) at Kansas City (2-2)
When: Sunday, October 10th, 2021
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -4/56.5

Last week’s Sunday Night Football game between the Bucs and Patriots might have been the most hyped and watched game of the season, but this Sunday’s contest under the lights could be the best matchup of the year. The Buffalo Bills look for revenge when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in a key Week 5 matchup. This game could have huge potential playoff tiebreaker implications as well. Last year, the Chiefs finished 14-2 and the Bills 13-3. Kansas City earned the AFC’s top seed thanks to a 26-17 Week 6 victory at Buffalo. That meant the Bills had to visit Arrowhead in the AFC Championship Game, which the Chiefs won 38-24 behind 325 yards passing and three touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes.

This year, Kansas City is off to a slow 2-2 start and in last place in the competitive AFC West, while the Bills are 3-1 and lead the AFC East. This game could see the return of wide receiver Josh Gordon, who was acquired and elevated to the active roster for Kansas City. Gordon, an All-Pro in 2013 with Cleveland, has not played since 2019 and has served six suspensions imposed by the NFL. That would add yet another weapon to the high-powered Chiefs offense, but defense has been the issue for the team through four games.

Kansas City is allowing an NFL-worst 6.9 yards per play, while the Bills rank first at 4.0. They are also allowing 31.3 points per contest compared to Buffalo’s 11.0. The Bills come in as 2.5-point underdogs and are just 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

Since losing at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, the Bills have looked like the best team in the league. Buffalo has outscored their last three opponents 118-21 including two shutouts while scoring at least 35 points in each. The Bills are the third team since 1990 to have two shutouts in its first four games of a season, joining the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 1991 Washington – both went on to win the Super Bowl. Not surprisingly, Buffalo leads the NFL in many defensive categories including yards allowed (216.8) and points per game allowed (11.0). On offense, Josh Allen is completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,055 yards, nine TDs and two interceptions while rushing for a TD. In last week’s 40-0 victory over Houston, Allen went 20-of-29 for 248 yards and a pick. Running back Taiwan Jones (hamstring), linebacker Matt Milano (hamstring) and defensive end Greg Rousseau (toe) did not practice earlier this week.

Even though Kansas City is in last place in the division, they are still one of the favorites to win Super Bowl 56, but a loss on Sunday could really change all of that. The Chiefs snapped a two-game skid on Sunday with a 42-30 win in Philadelphia as Patrick Mahomes had five touchdown passes, joining Ken Stabler as the only QBs to win at least 40 of his first 50 career starts. Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns and Gordon could provide another weapon alongside Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The rushing attack is led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has rushed for 100 yards in each of the last two games. Hill is still one of the biggest threats in the league and had 11 catches for 186 yards and three scores last week. The Chiefs, however, have been uncharacteristically careless with the football, committing seven turnovers, including four interceptions by Mahomes. The Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

Based on how these teams have played so far, this line should be higher. The Bills haven’t played the best competition, but they have looked more than impressive in winning their last three games. Kansas City’s offense might have some trouble this week against a really good Bills defense. And of course, the Chiefs can’t stop anyone on defense and Allen might have a field day.

Pick: Bills +2.5
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