49ers vs Packers Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [Week 6]

San Francisco (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2-1)
When: Monday, October 15th 2018
Where: Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, Wisconsin

Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Green Bay -7/46.5


The San Francisco 49ers had extremely high expectations entering the season, but injuries at key positions has made this possibly a lost season as they enter Week 6 with a 1-4 mark. The Niners will look to extend their nine-game Monday night winning streak when they visit the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. San Francisco ran a record 92 offensive plays, and recorded 33 first downs, but still lost 28-18 last week to the Arizona Cardinals. They also fumbled the ball four times (losing three of them), and quarterback CJ Beathard was intercepted twice. Green Bay dropped to 0-2 on the road after last week’s 31-23 setback to Detroit after falling behind by 24 points. The Packers also trailed by 18 in a loss at Washington in Week 3 and hope to get off to a better start Monday. Rodgers is 8-0-1 in his last nine home starts, throwing 22 TD passes and three interceptions. Entering this game the 49ers have won four out of the last five games against the Packers dating back to the 2012 season, but are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six games at Lambeau Field.


As I mentioned, the 49ers are going through the injury bug and eight of the team’s 11 offensive players did not practice Wednesday. San Francisco, which already has lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and No. 1 running back Jerick McKinnon, could be going into Green Bay without current top rusher Matt Breida. Veteran Alfred Morris is expected to receive a heavy workload in the backfield with or without Breida. Beathard has thrown for two touchdowns and two interceptions in each of his first two starts (both losses) but could have wide receiver Marquise Goodwin back in the lineup. Tight end George Kittle has a team-leading 33 receptions through five games. San Francisco is 10th overall in defense but is allowing 29.2 points per game.

Rodgers sat out Thursday’s practice with lingering knee issues which he originally hurt in Green Bay’s season opener against Chicago. Rodgers has still managed to throw for 10 touchdowns against only one interception and is coming off a season-best 442-yard performance at Detroit despite not having wide receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. Davante Adams made nine catches for 140 yards and a touchdown versus the Lions, giving him 37 receptions and four TDs on the season. The Packers rank fourth overall in total defense and are No. 3 against the pass (208.8 yards per game).

Green Bay could be 5-0 if they didn’t dig themselves such a hole to start games. San Francisco just doesn’t have the offense to open a big lead on the road behind Beathard. Rodgers has always been at his best at home and I expect that to continue here. Green Bay in a blowout.

Pick: Packers -9

https://youtu.be/nvWjbaGqHfs


Betting Trends:

  • 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • 49ers are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 Monday games.
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.
  • 49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
  • 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
  • Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October.
  • Packers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games overall.
  • Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games on grass.
  • Over is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games in Week 6.
  • Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in October.
  • Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 10-2 in Packers last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 8-2-1 in Packers last 11 games in Week 6.
  • Over is 22-6 in Packers last 28 games overall.
  • Over is 6-2 in Packers last 8 games following a straight up loss.
  • Over is 9-3 in Packers last 12 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 19-7 in Packers last 26 games on grass.
  • Under is 8-3 in Packers last 11 games in October.
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
  • 49ers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
  • 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.

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