49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Free Pick & Prediction

San Francisco (14-5) at Kansas City (14-6)
When: Sunday, February 11th, 2024
Where: Allegiant Stadium,
Las Vegas, NV

Time: 6:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: San Francisco -2.5/47.5

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We have reached the final game of what has been an exciting 2023-24 NFL season. The San Francisco 49ers will battle the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Both teams have a chance to make history in this matchup.

The Chiefs are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the New England Patriots almost 20 years ago. The 49ers are seeking their sixth Super Bowl championship which would tie them with New England and Pittsburgh for the most in NFL history.

This will be a rematch of Super Bowl 54 in which Kansas City won 31-20 to kick off their current dynasty run. The Chiefs trailed by 10 points after three quarters before outscoring San Francisco 21-0 in the fourth.

Head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce are among the returning stars for Kansas City, while the biggest loss is wideout Tyreek Hill. Head coach Kyle Shanahan, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle are back for San Francisco, but the team has moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy.

Including the regular season and playoffs, San Francisco is 14-5 straight up but just 9-10 against the spread. The Niners are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record and the Over has cashed in four of their last six games against the Chiefs. San Fran was terrible at home against the spread (3-7), but were 6-3 away from home.

Kansas City is 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS this year. They have been a terrific betting option when it comes to the postseason, where they are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 playoff games. Since the start of last year’s playoffs, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. San Francisco is a 2-point favorite in this game with a total of 47.5.

San Francisco had a terrific season, but the playoffs have been a different story. They barely got through the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, winning both games by three points and the defense look vulnerable. They trailed by seven after three quarters against the Packers and they were down 17 points at the half against the Lions. Purdy threw for 252 yards against Green Bay and 267 versus the Lions, but on threw one touchdown in each of those contests. Purdy is now 21-5 as a starter including playoffs.

The offense is led by Mr. Everything Christian McCaffrey, who finished the regular season with an NFL-best 1,459 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns. He’s been just as good in the postseason with 188 rushing yards and four touchdowns. McCaffrey also leads the team with 11 receptions this postseason, while Deebo Samuel has 10 catches for 113 yards.

San Francisco 49ers Injury Report [Super Bowl]

Arik ArmsteadDLProb Sun - Foot - 2/9/24
George KittleTEProb Sun - Toe - 2/5/24
Oren BurksLBProb Sun - Shoulder - 2/9/24
Ambry ThomasCBProb Sun - Ankle - 2/9/24
Clelin FerrellDLI-R - Knee - 1/20/24
Kalia DavisDLOut Sun - Ankle - 2/10/24
Ross DwelleyTEI-R - Ankle - 1/6/24
Talanoa HufangaSI-R - Knee - 11/21/23
Nick ZakeljOLI-R - Bicep - 11/15/23
Drake JacksonDLOut indefinitely - Knee - 11/11/23
Cameron LatuTEI-R - Knee - 8/29/23
Danny GrayWRI-R - Shoulder - 1/17/24

The Chiefs have kicked it into high gear over their last five games, winning all of them, while also covering the spread in each. The easily took care of the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens, holding those high-powered offenses to 41 total points. Mahomes passed for 241 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and Kelce finished with 116 receiving yards and a touchdown. In three career games against the 49ers, Mahomes is 3-0 with 1,023 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions

The defense ranks second in the NFL in total defense and they were able to hold Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to one passing touchdown, one interception and no rushing TDs. Kansas City’s rush defense isn’t the best, ranking 17th in the NFL. George Karlaftis leads the team with 2.5 sacks and fumble recover this postseason.

Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report [Super Bowl]

Rashee RiceWRProb Sun - Ankle - 2/9/24
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBProb Sun - Illness - 2/9/24
Chris JonesDTProb Sun - Quadricep - 2/5/24
Isiah PachecoRBProb Sun - Toe - 2/5/24
Willie GayLBProb Sun - Neck - 2/5/24
Kadarius ToneyWRProb Sun - Hip - 2/5/24
Skyy MooreWRProb Sun - Knee - 2/7/24
Jerick McKinnonRBQues Sun - Groin - 2/10/24
Joe ThuneyGOut Sun - Pectoral - 2/9/24
Nikko RemigioWROut indefinitely - Foot - 1/7/24
BJ ThompsonDEOut indefinitely - Hamstring - 10/8/23
Charles OmenihuDEI-R - Knee - 2/7/24
Cam JonesLBI-R - Chest - 1/17/24
Derrick NnadiDTI-R - Tricep - 1/27/24
Bryan CookSOut indefinitely - Ankle - 12/24/23
Prince Tega WanoghoOTOut Sun - Quadricep - 2/9/24
Jody FortsonTEI-R - Shoulder - 8/15/23
Nazeeh JohnsonSI-R - Knee - 8/3/23

I’m taking the Chiefs in this one. They have a big edge in experience and defense, which is what it takes to win the Big Game. Mahomes has been here before and won’t be intimidated by the atmosphere, while Purdy will have some nerves. Look for Mahomes and company to hoist the Lombardy Trophy.

Super Bowl Staff Selections

Pick: Chiefs +1.5