San Francisco (15-3) vs Kansas City (14-4)
When: Sunday, February 2nd, 2020
Where: Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami Gardens, FL
Time: 6:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Pickem/51
The most watched T.V. program of the year is coming up this weekend – Super Bowl 54. Almost 100 million people from all walks of life get together somewhere to watch this spectacle. This year’s edition features the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs against the defensive-minded San Francisco 49ers. The Niners gave up the fewest yards per game during the regular season, and were able to shut down two dangerous offenses in the Vikings and Packers. Neither Minnesota nor Green Bay had Patrick Mahomes under center, however, so this Sunday will be the true measure of San Fran’s defensive prowess. In their first two postseason games, Mahomes absolutely shredded the secondary of AFC South opponents Houston and Tennessee. The defending NFL MVP has a 131.5 QB rating and has thrown eight touchdowns to five different receivers over those games. The 49ers have arguably the best defensive line in football, and with nine sacks in two postseason games, they made Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins look pedestrian. If they can contain Mahomes and take his time away, Super Bowl LIV may be headed to the Bay this year.
The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years – that’s the longest stretch between appearances in league history. The 49ers, meanwhile, are looking to win a record-tying sixth Super Bowl. These teams didn’t play in the 2019 regular season but did in the preseason for what’s that worth. The 49ers won 27-17 in Kansas City on August 24th and both starting quarterbacks played a fair amount. The teams last played in a game that mattered in Week 3 of the 2018 season also in Kansas City. The Chiefs won 38-27 behind 314 yards passing and three touchdowns from Mahomes. The bigger news from that was San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffering a serious knee injury in the fourth quarter that would end his season. The Niners ended 4-12 that season, which landed them the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. San Francisco used that on Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa, who is probably going to win NFL Rookie of the Year and is a big part of the team’s resurgent defense.
There are many ways to bet this game, and Super Bowl Prop Bets are becoming increasingly popular. Take a look at what Bovada Sportsbook has available for Sunday.
The NFC top-seeded 49ers have breezed through the playoffs thus far, beating Minnesota 27-10 in the Divisional Round and then Green Bay 37-20 in the conference title game. Raheem Mostert, who has been released seven times in his career, had arguably the greatest postseason game by a running back in league history vs. the Packers with 220 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 29 carries. Fellow tailback Tevin Coleman hurt his shoulder in the game and didn’t return, giving Mostert the opportunity to shine. San Francisco was so dominant on the ground that Garoppolo attempted just eight passes. He’ll probably need to throw a little more in this game. The 49ers are the third team to make it to the Super Bowl a year after winning four or fewer games and have covered five straight games as underdogs.
The Chiefs had a little tougher time reaching this game, falling behind twice before rallying to knock off the Texans and Titans. This probably won’t be the last Super Bowl trip for Mahomes, who is already trending as an all-time great in only his second year as a starter. He threw for 294 yards and three scores in the 35-24 AFC Championship win over Tennessee. K.C. was down 24-0 vs. Houston in the Divisional Round and 17-7 late in the second quarter vs. the Titans. Andy Reid is one of the great regular-season coaches in NFL history, but he has yet to win a Super Bowl. Reid’s Philadelphia Eagles lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the 2004 Super Bowl. Kansas City has not only won eight games in a row, they’re 7-0-1 ATS in that span.
Everyone is looking for this to be a high scoring game, and it probably will. I haven’t trusted Kansas City’s defense in a few years, but they have really made nice adjustments over the last month of the season, including in-game changes in their two playoff games. San Francisco can’t rely solely on the run like they did last week and Garoppolo doesn’t fare well under pressure. If anyone can solve San Francisco’s defense, it’s Mahomes. I predict an exciting game with the Chiefs pulling away in the second half.
Pick: Chiefs -1 (Super Bowl Staff Selections)
49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
49ers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
49ers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in 49ers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in 49ers last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 playoff games.
Over is 7-2 in 49ers last 9 games on grass.
Over is 3-1-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3-1 in 49ers last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Chiefs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.