Week 7 opens Thursday night with the Patriots at the Bears and closes Monday with the Cowboys at the Eagles. In between, the Steelers and Saints play at 9:30 a.m. ET in Saint Denis, and the Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Commanders are on bye. Of the 14 games, one stands out to our staff.
Why fade the public at all
Betting against the crowd is one of the oldest ideas in the business, and the evidence for it is real but narrow. Sports Insights looked at eight seasons of NFL data, from 2004 to 2011, and found that underdogs drawing 20% or fewer of spread bets covered 57.1% of the time. All underdogs covered 50.3% over the same stretch. The catch is the sample: that filter turned up 147 games, about 18 a season.
BetMGM’s public betting splits show the share of bets on the spread, the total, and the moneyline for each game. A split only carries weight when it is lopsided. On Thursday’s Patriots–Bears game, 55% of spread bets and 59% of moneyline bets were on Chicago as of Thursday, Oct. 22, which is a lean toward the home favorite but well short of the 20%-or-fewer threshold in the Sports Insights research. A split shows where the popular side is, but the pick still has to stand up on football.
This week’s fade
The pick: Reggie Garrett on New England +3. All three UltimateCapper staff cappers are on the Patriots at +3, and it is one of Garrett’s top five plays of the week. With bettors only leaning slightly toward Chicago, this is a staff pick on the number rather than a fade of a lopsided split.
When the crowd is right
A popular side covers plenty of the time, and fading every lopsided split would mean betting against good teams for no better reason than their popularity. That is why the filter is narrow. In a week like this one, with no lopsided split on the board, the pick has to stand on the number and the matchup instead.
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