On the morning of March 29, the Vegas Golden Knights were 32-26-16, third in the Pacific, and sliding. By that afternoon, Bruce Cassidy had been fired as head coach and John Tortorella was behind the bench with eight games to play. Vegas went 7-0-1 the rest of the way, won the division at 39-26-17 with 95 points, and drew Utah, the West’s top wild card and a team that finished just three points behind them in the regular season.
Then it got strange. Vegas beat Utah and Anaheim in six games apiece before meeting a Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado side that had gone 8-1 through two rounds. The Golden Knights won both games in Denver without Mark Stone, held 100-point scorer Martin Necas to two assists, and completed the sweep 2-1 at home on May 26, with Stone and Cole Smith scoring. “It’s by far our best game,” Tortorella said of a series sweep the bookies had priced at 30-1 to end in four.
What does it say about the NHL that a team third in its own division in late March could sweep the best regular-season side in the league? That October is only a first impression. Four clubs priced as outsiders by the bookies right now are testing that theory.
Bruins
A year ago, Marco Sturm’s first team overachieved: 45-27-10, 100 points, and a six-game first-round loss to Atlantic champions Buffalo. Few outside New England expect a repeat in a punishing division, not least the bookies. The latest NHL odds make the Bruins a +230 outsider to reach the postseason again this term, and the dependence is obvious.
David Pastrnak, named captain after a fourth straight 100-point season, and Jeremy Swayman, a first-time Vezina finalist, carry the load. JJ Peterka arrived from Utah for the 23rd pick and a conditional 2028 first; Will Borgen came from the Rangers, and rookies James Hagens and Frederic Brunet made the team.
Peterka scored in a 3-0 opener over the Rangers, and Boston won in Winnipeg, then dropped two straight with the power play stuck at 0-for-10. But the fix has since come fast.
Pastrnak’s two goals and two assists in a 6-1 rout of Utah tied Brad Marchand for fourth on the club’s goals list; Swayman made 36 saves, and the penalty kill went 7-for-7. Two days later, Fraser Minten’s three points beat Philadelphia 5-1, and Swayman’s 136th win matched Andy Moog.
At 4-2-0, we have them in, most likely as a wild card.
Rangers
Two straight misses, a last-place finish in the East, and Chris Drury’s January retool made this the easiest team on the board to dismiss. Drury sent Vincent Trocheck to Utah for Sean Durzi and Cole Beaudoin, added Marcus Pettersson from Vancouver, signed Pavel Dorofeyev for seven years and $77 million, and drafted Alberts Smits fifth overall.
After an opening loss in Boston, Mika Zibanejad scored inside six minutes of a 5-1 home win over Tampa Bay, and Igor Shesterkin became the first Rangers goalie to score. Wins over Detroit, Utah, and the Islanders followed, the last built on an Alexis Lafreniere hat trick.
Shesterkin is on pace for 42 goals this season 😂 https://t.co/rDJf2VuYZh
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) October 2, 2026
On October 9 in Washington, Shesterkin fell awkwardly into his own net. A day later, he was ruled out for the season, with Joonas Korpisalo already on injured reserve.
How does a team lose its franchise goalie in October and still believe? October 11 offered an answer: 6-2 over Vancouver, two goals each from Tye Kartye and Will Cuylle, and 19 saves from Dylan Garand.
They’re 5-2-0, perfect at home, and Lafreniere has five goals. Long-term injured reserve should open room for a veteran goalie, but we see a bubble team that falls just short.
Jets
Eighteen months after a 116-point Presidents’ Trophy win, Winnipeg slumped to 35-35-12 and 82 points, including a franchise-record 11-game losing streak. Then the summer turned ugly. Connor Hellebuyck, who Kevin Cheveldayoff says first asked for a trade in April, went public on August 27 and was suspended on September 16 for failing to report to camp. The general manager has said there’s no timeline on a deal.
Consider what it takes to start well under that cloud. Stuart Skinner, signed for two years on July 1, made 33 saves for his first Jets win in Detroit after an overtime loss to Boston. Clay Stevenson, claimed off waivers from Washington, won his debut in Pittsburgh, and Skinner’s 32 saves beat Colorado 3-2 on Kyle Connor’s goal with a minute left.
Even a 5-1 loss to Anaheim without Josh Morrissey carried a footnote: Connor’s sixth goal took him past Ilya Kovalchuk into third on the franchise list. Cole Perfetti, extended for five years in July, has been central too.
At 3-1-1, a .700 points percentage, we have them taking the last wild card and avoiding back-to-back absences for the first time since 2016 and 2017.
Kraken
Can a club that collapsed after the Olympic break really be trusted with a fast start? Seattle sat third in the Pacific at the break, won only seven more games and finished 34-37-11 with 79 points, 27th overall and 28th in scoring. It was a third straight miss and a fourth in five seasons; 2022-23 remains their lone playoff trip.
The summer brought Mackie Samoskevich from Florida for the 25th pick and a conditional 2027 second, Chase Reid at seventh overall, and a second season under Lane Lambert. October has been livelier. Two 6-1 wins over Calgary bracketed a loss to Edmonton, and a 6-2 home defeat to Vegas cost Ryan Lindgren four to six weeks after a hit 15 seconds in.
The road trip since has steadied things. Freddy Gaudreau scored twice in a 6-3 win in Detroit, then again in Washington, where Jared McCann’s late winner and Joey Daccord’s 33 saves sealed a 5-3 victory. At 4-2-0, they’ll hang around into the new year. Odds of +500 suggest we still see a fourth straight miss, but if they can sort out the late-season woes that plagued them last term, don’t be surprised to see them upset the odds.
